[thechao]

And China had ... no? large-scale battery factories 10-15 years ago? What's the point? people forget that China was not a manufacturing powerhouse 25 years ago. Building factories at ridiculous speed & scales is something that humans are, apparently, really great at — it's the whole point of the Industrial Revolution.

[fnordpiglet]

I think this is what folks forget that our ability to produce is mind boggling. Onshoring and friend shoring is starting to become a national security issue, especially as China has a stated Taiwan “unification” date on the calendar and they’re cozying up to Russia, Iran, and North Korea while becoming increasingly hostile to US interests globally but especially in their neighborhood. Environmental concerns are typically the primary bottleneck in production state side, and national defense trumps such reviews. (For better or worse, no qualitative view meant or implied)

We can probably build capabilities in the order of a decade and we are already starting. In fact the pandemic showed that simply relying on globalized trade is a national security risk, let alone the other factors at play. I expect China will become increasingly marginalized on the global factory floor - which sadly I think will destabilize the situation. As their economic future hinges less on trade, their militaristic and exceedingly strident nationalist wing will demand growth through expansion and conquest.

It’s a race against time to see if we get there. Then it’s a race against rationality to see if we survive.

[bluGill]

China was a manufacturing powerhouse 25 years ago. Not quite as much as now, but even in the 1990s they were clearly a powerhouse. They have done more automation, but they have been a powerhouse since the 1990s.

[seanmcdirmid]

Things really picked up for China with Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s. When people say America can't do X like China can, they don't mean it will take a lot of time, they just mean that we don't have the will to do it. And given the huge environmental costs China incurred in its rapid development, they might be right.