[fnordpiglet]

I think this is what folks forget that our ability to produce is mind boggling. Onshoring and friend shoring is starting to become a national security issue, especially as China has a stated Taiwan “unification” date on the calendar and they’re cozying up to Russia, Iran, and North Korea while becoming increasingly hostile to US interests globally but especially in their neighborhood. Environmental concerns are typically the primary bottleneck in production state side, and national defense trumps such reviews. (For better or worse, no qualitative view meant or implied)

We can probably build capabilities in the order of a decade and we are already starting. In fact the pandemic showed that simply relying on globalized trade is a national security risk, let alone the other factors at play. I expect China will become increasingly marginalized on the global factory floor - which sadly I think will destabilize the situation. As their economic future hinges less on trade, their militaristic and exceedingly strident nationalist wing will demand growth through expansion and conquest.

It’s a race against time to see if we get there. Then it’s a race against rationality to see if we survive.