[elurg]

The US currently has a large advantage is mass-to-orbit capabilities that is set to explode once Starship comes online.

Elon needs to talk less about peace with Russia and more about deploying weapon systems. He can make enough money from it to retire on Mars.

[belter]

"Chinese scientists call for plan to destroy Elon Musk's Starlink satellites" - https://www.livescience.com/china-plans-ways-destroy-starlin...

[panick21_]

Yeah but they can't do it now and not for quite a while. And even then, what is the replacement speed. And how does it compare to how fast the US can take out China space based internet.

[cjbgkagh]

I always assumed he would end up deploying a weapons system to space. Of course he would have to pretend to be doing something else while he builds up the capability to prevent others from becoming nervous. Something silly like colonizing Mars would work, especially if he really leans in to the eccentric billionaire trope.

[MichaelZuo]

It would be impossible because even large amateur telescopes can photograph launch payload to a decent level of detail.

If the appearance doesn't match a plausible civilian satellite mission then everyone will know within hours.

[cjbgkagh]

The building of the infrastructure needs a red herring, the actual deployment need not be secret because by then it’s a done deed. Once deployed you’d want people to know, to avoid a Dr Strangelove situation. A veritable sword of Damocles.

[MichaelZuo]

I don't see how? An anti-satellite missile can be sent up to destroy the target within a few minutes of a decision.

[PeterisP]

If the launch capabilities are unbalanced (as they are!) then no, anti-satellite missiles aren't an option - at the moment noone can afford to launch an anti-satellite missile for every satellite that SpaceX can sustainably launch. Like, it was no problem to launch 1500+ satellites in 2022, but at the moment I don't see a credible capability for China or Russia to launch 1500+ anti-satellite missiles per year.

[cjbgkagh]

That kind of brinkmanship would still be attractive to a waning hegemon. I was thinking more like 250 tones worth of mini nukes which would be pretty hard to shoot down.

[MichaelZuo]

That would certainly destroy the US position internationally as it would be impossible to defend surreptitiously launching '250 tons worth of mini nukes' into orbit. Especially if space was not weaponized beforehand.

In fact it would very likely lead to literally every other country ganging up on the perceived villain, or at least staying on the sidelines.

So I don't see why any launch provider in the US would participate in the intentional destruction of the US?

[jdougan]

You'd think that....but then there is Deadhand/Perimeter...

[ta988]

Oh yeah? do we have pictures of all the private and defense satellites that were launched?

[IntrepidWorm]

Certainly not, but one wouldn't need to catch every satellite launch for space weapon- one or two would be enough evidence to go public and warrant further scrutiny. There are a number of extremely savvy amateur astronomers across the world that track suspected military launches and publish their findings: https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com

[ta988]

That's a fun website thanks

[robotnikman]

iirc there are international treaties to prevent this. If those treaties get broken you will unleash some nasty weapons, like 'Rods from God'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment