[MichaelZuo]

It would be impossible because even large amateur telescopes can photograph launch payload to a decent level of detail.

If the appearance doesn't match a plausible civilian satellite mission then everyone will know within hours.

[cjbgkagh]

The building of the infrastructure needs a red herring, the actual deployment need not be secret because by then it’s a done deed. Once deployed you’d want people to know, to avoid a Dr Strangelove situation. A veritable sword of Damocles.

[MichaelZuo]

I don't see how? An anti-satellite missile can be sent up to destroy the target within a few minutes of a decision.

[PeterisP]

If the launch capabilities are unbalanced (as they are!) then no, anti-satellite missiles aren't an option - at the moment noone can afford to launch an anti-satellite missile for every satellite that SpaceX can sustainably launch. Like, it was no problem to launch 1500+ satellites in 2022, but at the moment I don't see a credible capability for China or Russia to launch 1500+ anti-satellite missiles per year.

[cjbgkagh]

That kind of brinkmanship would still be attractive to a waning hegemon. I was thinking more like 250 tones worth of mini nukes which would be pretty hard to shoot down.

[MichaelZuo]

That would certainly destroy the US position internationally as it would be impossible to defend surreptitiously launching '250 tons worth of mini nukes' into orbit. Especially if space was not weaponized beforehand.

In fact it would very likely lead to literally every other country ganging up on the perceived villain, or at least staying on the sidelines.

So I don't see why any launch provider in the US would participate in the intentional destruction of the US?

[cjbgkagh]

Nah, people will get over it quite quickly. Before it happens people imagine that others will be all upset and do something, after it happens realpolitik kicks in and the world quickly adjusts to the new balance of power. Much of the world has a vested interest in the US staying the dominant hegemon and militarisation of space won't change that.

[MichaelZuo]

Are you joking?

[jdougan]

You'd think that....but then there is Deadhand/Perimeter...

[ta988]

Oh yeah? do we have pictures of all the private and defense satellites that were launched?

[IntrepidWorm]

Certainly not, but one wouldn't need to catch every satellite launch for space weapon- one or two would be enough evidence to go public and warrant further scrutiny. There are a number of extremely savvy amateur astronomers across the world that track suspected military launches and publish their findings: https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com

[ta988]

That's a fun website thanks