[marianatom]

You are wrong.

Yuan is still only 3% of global currency reserve, behind dollar (60%) and euro (20%). https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88926. up from 2% in 2017...

China is Russia's ally in the war, and even Russians don't even want yuan - it has been selling renminbi since the beginning of this year https://asiatimes.com/2023/04/rmb-based-trade-hasnt-worked-o....

de-dollarization is mainly happening with China, and it's only because Chinese economy is crashing fast (50% real estate price cut in matter of months, 100k+ housing inventory for sale in major tier 1 cities, 80% factory order decline from foreign companies), and it needs to have access to dollar to pay back its huge debt - 400% debt to gdp, and Guizhou just became the first Chinese province to declare bankruptcy last month.

[lifty]

China does not have aspirations for Yuan to become a world reserve currency, because that would imply opening their economy to outside investors and run deficits. They want to retain control over their economy while decreasing their exposure to the dollar, so what they do is try to trade in Yuan with their direct trade partners, and any trade imbalances to be settled using gold via the Shanghai stock exchange gold futures contract.

[chii]

aka, china wants to have all the advantages of a reserve currency, without suffering any of the disadvantages (yes, there are disadvantages that the US suffers from the dollar being a reserve).

[lifty]

I wouldn't say they would have all the advantages of a reserve currency. They will still have to find a way transform the foreign currency they accumulate into useful stuff. I think their primary concern is avoiding the dollar, since they quite a big exposure to it, and after they have seen what happened to Russia, their not too keen on maintaining the status quo.

[AndrewKemendo]

> because that would imply opening their economy to outside investors and run deficits.

And investors ultimately choose what the priorities of the organization are…

So that means this is probably “what happened in 1971” that decoupled labor from productivity — the US ceded labor sovereignty to the “market” that is global capitalism and “the market” started treating labor as a global market but with proceeds only going to capital owners.

Wow!!

[blackhaz]

Wow.. Looking at real estate price index here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCNR628BIS

Can you share a source for the 50% price real estate cut and 80% factory order decline estimates?

[fathyb]

> Guizhou just became the first Chinese province to declare bankruptcy last month

This is false, which is sad considering you're calling someone out for being wrong.

No province in China has declared bankruptcy. You're probably conflicting this from reports from questionable sources that it might happen given Guizhou's debt and poor finances, but it didn't happen.

[throw0101b]

> Yuan is still only 3% of global currency reserve

Which is half of the Yen and Pound, and not far off from the CA$ and AU$:

* https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A...

[ceejayoz]

“Nearly as big as Canada or Australia” isn’t the big flex your comment makes it out to be.

Australia is a country of 25M people.

[throw0101b]

If the Yuan is supposed to be the Next Big Thing, I would think it would have a larger share than the middling economies of AU and CA (where I live).

[prox]

Wow, didn’t see anything like that on my newsradar, is China really doing that bad?

[pas]

yes. the covid lockdowns were just a tip of the iceberg, which was of course also happened to be on fire, and everything around it is on fire too.

the service-goods shift during COVID and the shiftback after, coupled with the energy and food price shocks due to Russia-Ukraine war, definitely did not help the Chinese economy, that was already faking a higher GDP growth to paper over the cracks.

geopolitical tea leaves reading experts point to the aging population of China as a massive problem (again coupled with a lot of factors that make it a worse problem than it would be with a relatively open society, etc.), the limits to efficiency gains from centralization and big infrastructure projects (only so many miles of high-speed rail have positive ROI, only so many big dams make sense, etc), and - again - the cost of maintaining the authoritarian state.

[worrycue]

> only so many miles of high-speed rail have positive ROI

I heard their rail service is in massive debt too. They overbuild it.

[endisneigh]

Sources for your claims?

[krageon]

The OP speaks of tea leaf reader, which makes this a secondhand reading of tea leaves. Reading tea leaves is essentially writing fiction - is this not how the comment was meant to be read?

[pas]

not primary sources, but I recommend starting with these

Peter Zeihan https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVQDUQR8I4

https://www.noahpinion.blog/archive?sort=search&search=china

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/s...

[hnfong]

Wow, a mid-2019 youtube video as evidence of COVID woes and collapse of the Chinese economy in 202X ?

Blogs that literally have "opinion" in the title as sources for sensational claims?

Try harder.

Don't get me wrong, people like you are the reason I can buy Chinese stocks dirt cheap. I'm still waiting for the 50% property price cuts.

Try harder please.

[prox]

Interesting times for them, thanks for clarifying!