[pas]

yes. the covid lockdowns were just a tip of the iceberg, which was of course also happened to be on fire, and everything around it is on fire too.

the service-goods shift during COVID and the shiftback after, coupled with the energy and food price shocks due to Russia-Ukraine war, definitely did not help the Chinese economy, that was already faking a higher GDP growth to paper over the cracks.

geopolitical tea leaves reading experts point to the aging population of China as a massive problem (again coupled with a lot of factors that make it a worse problem than it would be with a relatively open society, etc.), the limits to efficiency gains from centralization and big infrastructure projects (only so many miles of high-speed rail have positive ROI, only so many big dams make sense, etc), and - again - the cost of maintaining the authoritarian state.

[worrycue]

> only so many miles of high-speed rail have positive ROI

I heard their rail service is in massive debt too. They overbuild it.

[endisneigh]

Sources for your claims?

[krageon]

The OP speaks of tea leaf reader, which makes this a secondhand reading of tea leaves. Reading tea leaves is essentially writing fiction - is this not how the comment was meant to be read?

[pas]

not primary sources, but I recommend starting with these

Peter Zeihan https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVQDUQR8I4

https://www.noahpinion.blog/archive?sort=search&search=china

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/s...

[hnfong]

Wow, a mid-2019 youtube video as evidence of COVID woes and collapse of the Chinese economy in 202X ?

Blogs that literally have "opinion" in the title as sources for sensational claims?

Try harder.

Don't get me wrong, people like you are the reason I can buy Chinese stocks dirt cheap. I'm still waiting for the 50% property price cuts.

Try harder please.

[prox]

Interesting times for them, thanks for clarifying!