| > Most people live in cities, and the fraction that lives in urban areas continues to grow Given a choice, many are choosing point-to-point. Even where there is mass transit, American cities aren’t as dense as European and Asian centres. (Particularly post Covid.) The solution will be hybrid. Planners who pivot hard for trains make the same mistake as those who went hard for cars in the 50s. > before we even get to the problem of Uber and Lyft being utterly unsustainable businesses In suburbs, yes. Cities have had cabs for ages. > drop the transit down, and the buildings around will redevelop absent punitive zoning. No better time to start than today Now isn’t good. We’re on the precipice of a regime change. Self-driving cars port economies of scale from Phoenix to New York and vice versa. That isn’t true of trains given the amount of local planning required*. We should deploy artery routes. But the end game will be point to point, aided with trains for efficiency. There are many ways that could develop; it seems silly to bet on the legacy model this late in the game. * Yes, Wayne must tune. But that team can move on once done. We don’t ship Chicago’s urban planners to Seattle; there is a strong element of re-learning everything every time with trains. |
Cars are an awful model because they spend 95% of their time idle. They do that because most people only want to commute to work and from work. Which means you need to have enough capacity on the road for 1.5-pax average vehicles for everyone. That's why adding one more lane never solves anything. They're fundamentally a choice which does not scale no matter how many more lanes you add. No matter how much automation you add. And if you choose to play this game you just induce more demand.
They're also a regressive tax on the poor since you're shouldering the average person with hundreds to thousands of dollars in car payments, maintenance, registration, licensing, insurance, etc. Plus the socialized cost of 'free parking'.
Cars are a bad model, period.
> In suburbs, yes. Cities have had cabs for ages.
Well sure, but that's because they pool their leases and insurance, which isn't something you can do in a gig economy. Which means uber and Lyft have fundamentally worse unit economics than cabs. So you should assume you'll in the fullness of time pay at least as much as cabs cost.
> Now isn’t good.
Now is the best time since yesterday.