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by JumpCrisscross 1157 days ago
> Cars are an awful model because they spend 95% of their time idle

Private cars, sure. I doubt a New York taxi gets that down time.

> uber and Lyft have fundamentally worse unit economics than cabs. So you should assume you'll in the fullness of time pay at least as much as cabs cost

But higher utilization. Uber is profitable in New York. I think Uber is actually more expensive than a yellow, now, because the TLC hasn't been great about inflation adjusting rates. But it's more convenient, more reliable, and so, again, utilized more. (Wayne was like $5 per ride in Phoenix.)

> Now is the best time since yesterday

You're purposely ignoring the point. If you're getting all the requirements tomorrow, tonight isn't a smart time to build.
1 comments
arcticbull 1157 days ago
Most people in New York take the metro.

> Of all people who commute to work in New York City, 39% use the subway, 23% drive alone, 11% take the bus, 9% walk to work, 7% travel by commuter rail, 4% carpool, 1.6% use a taxi, 1.1% ride their bicycle to work, and 0.4% travel by ferry.

> Uber is profitable in New York.

And if that's all it took to be Uber they'd be in great shape but again, most people in New York take the metro. And Uber's business model relies on people taking Uber outside of Manhattan.

> You're purposely ignoring the point. If you're getting all the requirements tomorrow, tonight isn't a smart time to build.

This doesn't make sense. I'm telling you if you build rail density will come. Like it always has. So if you want a chicken, you better get started on the egg.

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JumpCrisscross 1157 days ago
> Most people in New York take the metro

I assume this is your source [1]. It's from 2017, and only measures commutes. As of February, total subway ridership was down a quarter to a third; busses have stabilized at -35% [2]. Notable absentee: Manhattan, the densest of the lot, where we're stubbornly below -50%.

I'm not arguing against trains. Just against deploying new trains at the precipice of a game changer.

> if you build rail density will come. Like it always has

You're quoting sources from before remote work. (I'm ignoring the increasing automation, particularly in Manhattan.) And, again, before we know how self-driving cars will change transportation.

[1] https://archive.today/20200213125620/https://factfinder.cens...

[2] https://comptroller.nyc.gov/reports/riders-return/#:~:text=M....

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