[tough]

Now that you put it that way, maybe (b) is the ugly truth, and (a) is just the prettier (everyone else is doing it) scape goat.

I see interest rates being the number 1 excuse for layoffs, but there has to be something else on why Software is getting screwed so much in this down cycle. I used to think AI/LLMs, but who knows.

Im not seeing as many layoffs internationally but that might be biased, one would thought climbing interests rates would have more of a first order global effect

[steveBK123]

Conversely, I think it should make sense that the growthiest of growth areas, tech, would see the biggest pullback once money starts costing money again.

A lot of loss-making / future growth speculative tech business models make a lot less sense when you can make about 5% risk free.

It doesn't get discussed much, but during the boomiest tech hiring days of COVID.. interest rates weren't just 0%.. they were, in real terms, negative.

Circa 2021 the treasury/risk free rate was about 1.5% while inflation ended the year at about 7%. So you were getting paid 5.5% to take risk. This incentives speculation as parking your money in a safe CD/bond/whatever loses real-money with time.

Now inflation & risk free rate are at about parity.

[jstarfish]

AI is too nascent to be the sole reason for so many layoffs. Emulating HR is about all it can be trusted to do autonomously.

Old people (50+) and troublemakers (PIPs) comprised the entirety of my own company's most recent layoff round. They're not even trying to hide it anymore.

My hunch is that [America] is laying off domestic engineers so we can outsource more of the positions to India during the next hiring phase. If anything, AI is playing middleman in flattening a lot of the communication hurdles.

[clambirty]

Management in the Red Hat's Support organization said recently they were hiring new support engineers out of India to help alleviate burnout. A hiring freeze in all countries except India effectively is outsourcing.

[morpheuskafka]

But why would companies want to say (a) and not (b)? Seems like “you lost your job because the government raised taxes” would be a pretty popular explanation and PR strategy to get the change reversed.

[susumukodai]

1: "government" would likely be a large customer, and putting blame on one of your large customers is not a good business plan.

2: As much as we know the Biden Administration is largely responsible for our rampant inflation, to point out their significant part into our trashed economy only invites retaliation from them and their cronies. This administration is quick to attack anyone who even slightly besmirches or questions them (much like their masters in the CCP).

[freedomben]

Just some friendly advice for the future, statements like this do much damage to your credibility.

> (much like their masters in the CCP).

[ska]

> there has to be something else on why Software is getting screwed

A lot of companies clearly overhired in the last few years, and had access to cheap money if needed to help with that. Perhaps that is most of what explains it? It was also biased to US companies, so would make sense that the reversal would be larger there also.