[koonsolo]

Why would a quick win of Ukraine suddenly change the political landscape in Russia? Russians don't protest now, so why would they suddenly start doing that?

However, a weak Russia cannot keep regions that want to break away. Russia as we know it now is not going to exist anymore. Not because they would suddenly overthrow the current government (which they won't). But because plenty of 'friendly' neighbor states might cut connections, and controlled regions might see a brighter future on their own. They are not going to nuke them because of this.

Russia turning into a new North Korea is unfortunately almost a given right now, since the Russian public doesn't seem motivated to protest and demand another government.

[iavael]

There's not many regions in Russia that would really break away.

If we speak about regions with russian majority then it's unlikely because despite Russia being very big russian ethnicity culturally is quite uniform. And as for other ethnicities then for most of them it's not economically or politically viable to separate: either their country will become enclaves surrounded by large mass of russian territory or will occupy territory with harsh environment where it would be hard even in the long run to establish sustainable modern economy without tight economical integration with russian territories.

So if we speak about regions with reasonable potential to break away then they are republics in Northern Caucasus and maybe Tyva. And that not very much.

[stjohnswarts]

I think so as well. All the ones who really wanted to already have. Most likely Russia will withdraw with Crimea and become a Chinese vassal state because they ruined any good will they had in the rest of the world.

[ajuc]

Quick win allows Ukraine to integrate with the west (EU and hopefully NATO) and be a success story. The whole "social contract" in Russia is based on the assumption that "ruskie" people (which they say includes Belarusians and Ukrainians) can't prosper in a democracy. That you need dictatorship. Anything else is a western lie that lead to a "failed state" (the favorite russian name for Ukraine) and 90s-like situation.

Ukrainians have families in Russia and vice-versa. They travel, talk, watch the same videos, etc. Currently there's censorship, but it won't go on forever, it won't block everything. People knew they can't call it a war but it was a war. Propaganda can't lie about everything all of the time.

If Ukrainians have a successful democracy, if Russians migrate to work in Ukraine and not the other way around - that would be the ultimate blow to the core of the russian social contract.

Imagine if Mexico turned 100% communist and became obviously richer than USA in 5 years. So rich that Americans migrated there in millions. What would it do to Republicans in USA?

This is BTW the real reason Putin invaded Ukraine - because it started on this road. And that was the ultimate threat to Russian authocrats.

That's why Russia will try to prolong the war, freeze and unfreeze it, threat Ukraine to scare the foreign investors and EU countries, etc. This is why they target cities and infrastructure even more than the army. As long as people in Russia are wealthier than in Ukraine and Belarus - Putin's fine.