| Quick win allows Ukraine to integrate with the west (EU and hopefully NATO) and be a success story. The whole "social contract" in Russia is based on the assumption that "ruskie" people (which they say includes Belarusians and Ukrainians) can't prosper in a democracy. That you need dictatorship. Anything else is a western lie that lead to a "failed state" (the favorite russian name for Ukraine) and 90s-like situation. Ukrainians have families in Russia and vice-versa. They travel, talk, watch the same videos, etc. Currently there's censorship, but it won't go on forever, it won't block everything. People knew they can't call it a war but it was a war. Propaganda can't lie about everything all of the time. If Ukrainians have a successful democracy, if Russians migrate to work in Ukraine and not the other way around - that would be the ultimate blow to the core of the russian social contract. Imagine if Mexico turned 100% communist and became obviously richer than USA in 5 years. So rich that Americans migrated there in millions. What would it do to Republicans in USA? This is BTW the real reason Putin invaded Ukraine - because it started on this road. And that was the ultimate threat to Russian authocrats. That's why Russia will try to prolong the war, freeze and unfreeze it, threat Ukraine to scare the foreign investors and EU countries, etc. This is why they target cities and infrastructure even more than the army. As long as people in Russia are wealthier than in Ukraine and Belarus - Putin's fine. |