[paulcole]

It’s my belief that in a few generations in the US “owning a home” will no longer be the default dream people have.

You can kind of see a similar shift today in how teens/young adults are losing interest in driving — something their great-grandparents would have thought crazy. “But a car is what makes you free!”

[ziftface]

Maybe I'm just sandwiched between those generations but I don't see how those are equivalent. The desire for stable housing isn't a social construct. If you can't secure that you'll always be stressed.

[paulcole]

Stable housing isn’t limited to owning a single family home. Renting a small apartment can be very stable (I’ve done this for the past 15 years). Owning a small condo can be very stable. There are also many stressed homeowners who worry about making mortgage payments.

The reason many see these as unstable today is because of the default-ness of single family housing as the default goal. Similarly how driving a car was the default goal for 16 year olds for several generations.

It’s hard to imagine not wanting to purchase a home because we’ve been sold it as the smart and obvious thing to do for quite awhile now.

[ryukafalz]

Also, renting from a private landlord and owning are not the only two options that can exist. Social housing can be incredibly stable as well, and there are lots of different possible models for social housing.

I read an article recently (can't find it immediately) proposing a social housing mechanism where you pay into it via rent and gain equity not in the specific housing unit itself, but rather in the social housing program as a whole. Kind of like a REIT, only at a certain point you get an entitlement to a housing unit and no longer have to pay rent, as if you'd paid off a mortgage.

[thegginthesky]

Renting might be stable but it's very dependant on whoever owns the house and what type of regulations and protections your government has in place. Owning a home (house/apartment/land/etc) gives you more rights over where you live and more stability in most countries.

I've seen rents go up with inflation where inflation grows at 25% yoy, and I've seen people kicked out of an apartment 3 months after moving in because the owner found a buyer with a good deal.

But I agree with you, single family housing is the goal for some cultures and generations, and it was carefully crafted by governmental policy, propaganda, marketing and third party interests. We are now seeing the consequences of such.

Yet, not all people have that goal, but a lot are content to just owning a place to live even with relatives, a community or others.

I feel it's hard to not wanting to own something if it grants more rights and protections against injustices. In the countries I've lived, having a property deed of any sorts with your name on it makes your life so much better and stress free.

[paulcole]

For a counter perspective, think about home ownership as not stable, but inflexible. It doesn’t quite have the same ring to it, does it?

A lot of this comes down to what an individual values and my argument is that what individuals value when it comes to housing will change drastically over the coming 50 or so years.

[saiya-jin]

You would be surprised how adaptable people are, everybody owning their house and this being some yardstick of success is very US-centric construct.

Here in most of Europe its luxury with 2 faces - it costs significantly more of your money, time and energy to own it. Is it worth spending the little free time you have in your life with just plain stupid property maintenance? For me its a skill I happily delegate to (much) less earning fellows, and I spend that time with family, doing sports and adventures or just relaxing.

Ie in Switzerland, due to way property taxes are setup, its very ineffective to fully own your house. To inherit is sort of curse or at least a burden, you usually immediately have to sell. Nobody apart from few whiny expacts complaints about it, people have actual lives to take care of and focus on much more important matters.

[tzs]

Home ownership rates in most of Europe are higher than in the US.

Rates in European countries [1].

Rates in the US [2].

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/246355/home-ownership-ra...

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N

[xboxnolifes]

What required maintenance are people doing all the time that is taking up their free time? Everything I can think about are things that renters still need to deal with, like cleaning. The only big US thing I can think of is lawn mowing, which, as crazy as it sounds to a lot of Americans, is not a requirement to have outside of very strict HOAs. And you can also just pay someone to do it if you still want a lawn.

[kitsunesoba]

This might be due to misunderstanding of the economics involved on my part, but I don't see this happening unless the cost of renting in desirable areas drops substantially enough that yearly price increases can no longer present a substantial risk to the average individual's financial stability. Needing to periodically move to keep rent affordable and the anxiety that comes with always having to think about where you're going to have to look next gets old really fast.

From my perspective as a mid-30s millennial, much of what's fueling desire to own a home right now is the ability to turn housing costs into a semi-fixed and mostly predictable expense, even if mortgages aren't all that much cheaper than renting in the short term. That assurance is worth quite a lot.

[paulcole]

I find that it’s difficult to change anyone’s mind on this subject, but the issues I often see are:

1. Overestimating the predictability of the costs of owning a home. As a renter, I know exactly what I will pay for the next year. A homeowner doesn’t have that same knowledge.

2. Comparing rent to mortgage for equivalent properties. Yes, renting the same property will generally compare unfavorably to purchasing it. But compare a 2-bedroom apartment to a 4-bedroom home and the apartment becomes much more competitive financially. However then it comes down to personal preference for the place you want to live, not a rational cost analysis.

3. Underestimating the stress of owning a home and overestimating the stress of renting - but this is also mostly a personal and perspective thing.

[kitsunesoba]

The calculus is naturally going to differ depending on the individual, but for points 1 and 3, if you can find newer construction within budget that's more likely to have been built to code and not in need of critical maintenance, things will likely work out in favor of homeownership.

Having previously been renting in the SF Bay Area, ownership worked out much better in my case. With the rate that rent had been increasing there it'd take several bad unexpected house repairs each year to equal the increases.

Factoring in planned improvements might make money spent over time more of a wash, but the big difference there is that I can save and plan for improvements… point in case I have planned major bathroom renovations that I've been sticking money into a high yield savings account for. If push comes to shove, don't actually need to do the renovations though, and that money can go towards other more important things helping mitigate or prevent financial disaster. On most peoples' salaries that's difficult to do when renting unless you're renting something so small that it's difficult to use as anything but a place to sleep.

[paulcole]

> On most peoples' salaries that's difficult to do when renting unless you're renting something so small that it's difficult to use as anything but a place to sleep.

This is kind of getting at my point and prediction. Cars were once seen as Freedom Machines that people were dying to operate when they turned 16.

I believe in future generations will see housing as more than a place to sleep but won’t continue to drool over a 3 or 4 bedroom single family home. People are having fewer kids and the climate is going to make maintaining a yard a bigger hassle and cost in many areas.

[astura]

> a semi-fixed and mostly predictable expense, even if mortgages aren't all that much cheaper

Sorry I break the bad news - As a homeowner, this is not an advantage of owning a home. Houses are MASSIVE money sinks. The cost of rent is MUCH more predictable.

[kitsunesoba]

Well, two years in that hasn't been my experience. Costs have so far been minimal and well below what rent increases would've been. Things can and will go wrong but it'd take something pretty crazy to nullify the money saved on rent increases already, let alone if things continue as they have been.

Even when a big unexpected house expense inevitably happens I will have had the benefit of having been able to invest the cash that would've otherwise have been spent in the meantime somewhere where it's making some interest instead of going into the black hole of rent with no returns at all.

[astura]

Well, it's easy to have two good years. It's also easy to have a bad two years with multiple major repairs.

I went one year where I spent at least $16,000 on repairs.

But that's the point - having $16,000 in repairs unexpectedly is the opposite of "semi-fixed and mostly predictable."

In the 10 years I rented I always rented from small landlords. I had three apartments during that 10 years. Because of that I've never had my rent increase without moving.

As far as black holes go - I spend more than $600/month in just property taxes and insurance. Add to that $360/month currently in interest.

[paulcole]

But if your rent is equal to your mortgage (very doable in many places, albeit for different properties), you do not need to uninvest that money for unforeseen expenses.

[Seb-C]

Those two things are only related culturally, not inherently.

I do own an individual house in Tokyo and don't have, need or want a car, so it is definitely possible when the society wants it and politics allows it.

[max_expectation]

This is already the case for people my age unless one gets a significant parental handout. Certainly for anywhere within an hour or two commute of a city where most jobs are.