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by postsantum 1157 days ago
We had a similar situation with blockchain a few years ago
4 comments

The difference is that LLM has a lot of use cases where it can be enormously productive. Blockchain has never had such a use case.
> LLM has a lot of use cases where it can be enormously productive

The great chance of LLMs is of course assistive technology, where human actors and LLMs collaborate to do tasks. I am afraid however that what will shape the impact of LLMs on humanity much more is a different thing: Throught history there was always a certain number of people a dictator had to be at good terms with in order to stay in power. My fear is, that this number will become smaller, because it will be much easier to give the realistic impression that you have the support.

Existing concepts of reality and truth will definitly be completely and utterly destroyed by LLMs, and even actual, real information will be tainted by the fact that it could be fake – we are already seeing today on a smaller scale what living in such a world feels like if we look how societies in a post-truth environment operate.

My prediction (and I'd love to be wrong on that) is that the negative use of LLMs will outweigh positive use significantly, because it favours use cases where you don't have to care about correctness.

Existing concepts of reality and truth will definitly be completely and utterly destroyed by LLMs, and even actual, real information will be tainted by the fact that it could be fake – we are already seeing today on a smaller scale what living in such a world feels like if we look how societies in a post-truth environment operate.

<2050>

Did Donald Trump supporters dye their hair orange in support?

Yes they did... (news article supporting the idea, complete with photos and video (with audio))

I almost fear for any history that has been digitized.

History is written by the victors, and AI is looking like a victor at this point.

While that is true, LLMs are (like blockchains) difficult to understand for laypeople, and this is (as it was with blockchains) used to compel gullible investors with FOMO to invest in some highly questionable enterprises that make no goddamn sense.
ChatGPT passes the "my mom can use it" test with flying colors. It's extremely accessible.
“Mum why did you sell our family home at half the price it’s worth ?!?!, ChatGPT told me it was a good price son!!!”
My extremely technically-challenged mom called me out of the blue to tell me about how she was using ChatGPT at work, which was my “holy shit” moment with LLMs.
"holy shit" in the sense of "holy shit, soon everything will get polluted by hallucinated but convincingly sounding bullshit"?

LLMs hallucinate so you have to check everything they spit out. But their outputs sound convincing and people are lazy...

I'm curious. If you are willing to talk about it what did she use it for?
She has a learning disability from a TBI she sustained as a kid and has a hard time writing long documents. Most of her work doesn’t involve doing this, but when she does, she can now draft an outline and have ChatGPT help her flesh things out.
Right, now try to explain to her how it works.
Does the average person generally understand how the internet works? The economy? Their own muscles?

We understand things enough to know how to use them. Yes, this means the unknown parts can be used to scam people, but that’s true with anything.

We did see a lot of that scam artistry with regards to the Internet. That was the Dot Com bubble.

The two necessary components seem to be novelty/hype and inscrutable inner workings.

"It's an overpowered autocomplete that was trained to have a conversation rather than completing your thoughts."
This Economist article is an excellent explainer.
Nonsense! The blockchain enabled lots of use cases that weren’t accessible to the average person before.

For example: buying drugs, getting fake passports, hiring hitmen, and selling drugs.

Has anyone actually hired a real hitman with Bitcoin? In pretty much all cases that I've heard of, the hitman turned out to be either a cop or a scammer.
You make a good point that, blockchain or not, ultimately the problem is not technological in nature. Bitcoin facilitates drugs and hitmen as much as ability to mail someone a letter with bank account details attached (account with money). As usual, the solution is to make the activity not worth the risk by posing as either party.
buying stadiums in Florida, gambling imaginary money, moving money to your dad to pay for your inevitable legal bills, buying league skins, the list is endless.
The only thing that really worried me was effective altruism. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of a changing world for the better binge
I think anyone familiar with effective altruism's roots in utilitarianism was rightly immediately concerned about it, especially how it currently seems to be manifested.

Never forget Jeremy Bentham proposed the Panopticon.

We can't stop here. This is changing world for the better country!
Nonsense! I have run a meth lab in my basement long before blockchain.
I literally never had any conversation about using blockchain at work or in our personal lives and I don't know anybody that did. This hype is nothing like blockchain.
The difference is the answer to "can we use it with blockchain" was: "uhhh, maybe? somehow?", whereas for LLMs it's "yeah sure, I can think of these 10 use cases, half of which we can probably implement today if we use an API".
Haha yes. But at the time, experts' opinions of where it would go ranged from not much to a big expansion in the size of the banked population and the space of contracts that can be written, with a lot of probability mass at nothing. AI experts themselves today estimate a range from we destroy ourselves to nearly infinite wealth, with a lot* probability mass at we destroy ourselves.

* It might be on the order of 1%, but it would be insane for a rational actor to ignore a 1% probability of self-destruction.