[lbotos]

My dude, if you wanna pretend like the greater macro trends have no effects on large swaths of business then be my guest but businesses in may different verticals are prepping for less sales. It's whats happening. You can la la la "businesses are dumb and no one is a free thinker" all you want but that only hurts you.

No business is an island.

I'm not parroting what I've read others say. I'm sharing my LIVED EXPERIENCE from a company that is like EA. Go look at my profile and look at the news.

This place used to feel like we had some nerds that really wanted to understand business. I'm sad that acknowledging simple macro trends is not considered table stakes anymore.

[kevviiinn]

So they specifically told you that they were doing layoffs because interest rates went up?

[lbotos]

I'm not at liberty to share those discussions with you, but I respect you for asking. I can point you to what was shared with the public:

"The current macroeconomic environment is tough, and as a result, companies are still spending but they are taking a more conservative approach to software investments and are taking more time to make purchasing decisions."

Do you think that's a lie? Some businesses have stacks of dollars, but how fast will that value be inflated away? Some businesses don't and rely on credit to cover payroll. That just got more expensive due to interest rates. Our CEO said "Businesses are making decisions differently". Or said another way:

The Macro environment has effects to all businesses.

Your original dunk attempt was "everybody, myself included is just parrotting and blindly following" and I attempted to explain to you that everyone is in this new macro environment (driven by the changes to cost of money, as well as increased money supply) together and is adjusting business expectations accordingly.

Do you think interest rates and the influences to macro env are not the driving factor impacting business decisions right now? Would love to hear what your contrary thoughts are beyond "business leaders are all sheep, myself included".

[kevviiinn]

Macroeconomic environment can also be equated to rising cost of salaries in general, salaries can be reduced by increasing competition in the workforce through large layoffs. If a company can't afford to continue paying large salaries they can easily reduce that cost through laying people off at the same time as other companies

[lbotos]

I'll ask you one rhetorical question and then I'm going to stop arguing with you because you refuse to connect the dots for some fantastic hoop-jumping:

- What is driving the cost of salaries raising?

In "normal times" you might say competition and cost of living. Cost of living is... inflation.

Right now, with our increased money supply, inflation is much higher than it's been for a while, and that is a large driving factor for people demanding more salary. This is where interest rates play in to layoffs. This concurs with your points that laying off people could create more competition in the market which means some folks may consider a job for slightly less pay vs. no job at all.

But you've run circles trying to pretend like interest rates are not a factor in this, and I'm not gonna waste any more of my time explaining that to you. There is enough commentary from others here and everywhere else, you are just refusing to believe it.

[kevviiinn]

Of course I refuse to believe it, just because a bunch of people are parroting the same line doesn't make it correct.

Inflation is being driven by corporations who have been increasing prices since the pandemic, they've had record profits at the expense of everyone's cost of living [0,1] and even landlords have been colluding [4] to raise rents on people even though they can't afford it, I mean where will they go as one property management company asked in a business call [3]. Even Forbes doesn't take the opportunity to blame the fed in this instance, which is kinda funny to me, but being a mouthpiece for capital they of course point the finger at supply constraints with some fancy graphs [2].

[0] https://abcnews.go.com/US/record-corporate-profits-driving-i...

[1] https://abcnews.go.com/US/record-corporate-profits-driving-i...

[2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/09/30/what-i...

[3] https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-evictions-monarch-in...

[4] https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/10/company-that-mak...

And this is all ignoring the fact that you insinuate that your own conclusion is wrong with the line :

>In "normal times" you might say...

[lbotos]

I appreciate your sources. They point to many effects people feel. The big I Inflation is being driven by one thing:

An increase in the money supply.

The Fed did that. I’m not arguing the morality of it. It’s what happened. Do we agree the Fed printed more money?

The way the fed combats that decision to increase the money supply is an increase in the interest rate. Do we agree that the way the fed decreases the money supply is raising interest rates?

Everything you point to, all of the sub effects and greed, are because more money exists in the system now. People are spending $7 on eggs instead of EA games because of the egg co’s greed, but that greed is fueled by more money existing now. There is some “natural” higher price that I’m sure you and I could agree on because more money exists and we both agree — some companies are being greedy. That’s not the cause of Inflation.

If the fed were not raising the interest rate, businesses would not be under the pressures they are to work differently. Some businesses don’t need to raise prices but are being greedy. Others can’t survive so they are making changes to attempt to survive.

You: look at all these businesses that are making decisions that are making inflation harder felt for no good reason! It’s greed!

Me: yes, they are being greedy. The only reason they can attempt this is more money exists. The fed will slurp that money back up by raising the interest rates and we are all left to pick up the pieces.

My premise: if the fed keeps raising rates, that it will have continued deeper effects on more businesses. Do you agree?

(And my follow up premise: the fed have to raise interest to fight their prior money printing but if you disagree with that I’m really interested in learning how you think the Fed solves it.)

Or are you still convinced it’s just greed? (I agree greed is a factor, but that’s a result of the feds actions, not the root.)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=11EzJ - money supply. Notice it starts shrinking Mar ‘22

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=11EzX - interest rates. Notice it start’s materially raising Mar ‘22