Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by eclipsetheworld 1169 days ago
I'll take the contrarian stance here. During the Morgan Stanley Conference interview, Elon Musk forecasted that Twitter had the potential to achieve a positive cash flow status by the second quarter of 2023. Advertisers are returning to the platform and they just announced their new API monetization plans [0]. The company's strategic direction notwithstanding, Twitter may be a profitable company soon.

[0] https://twitter.com/TwitterDev/status/1641222782594990080

4 comments

At this point I’ve learned not to take anything Elon says about the future, especially the near future, at face value.

Could it happen? Certainly. Will it happen the way he says it will? Probably not.

But which advertisers? It's not enough to get +10,000 people trying out a $10 or $100 ad while rates are low due to low bidding competition. Twitter needs the big advertisers who expect to have someone at the company support their campaigns. The new owner fired the people who did that. Worse, he fired the people who'd spent years earning those advertisers' trust and patience.
Performance-focused advertisers. Growing this segment was already set as a strategic direction for Twitter in 2021, however, Musk's takeover and the subsequent departure of brand-focused advertisers seem to have accelerated these plans [0].

As for brand-focused advertisers, I can see parallels to 2017's "YouTube Adpocalypse" in which advertisers paused their spending due to their ads being displayed before videos containing offensive content. They recovered from it by demonitizing offensive content. Twitter will have to address "brand safety" concerns, however,

[0] https://www.wsj.com/articles/have-the-ads-in-your-twitter-fe...

Advertisers are returning because they're basically getting free stuff, and will cut back on Twitter as soon as that spigot runs out.

My company advertises on Twitter, because they gave us an 80% discount to keep advertising on Twitter after we started shifting more spend to other sites last fall. We haven't actually paid Twitter yet; they keep sending emails but we figured we'd just pull an Elon and wait until they actually got serious about collecting. It helps that our account reps keep getting laid off.

Notably, Elon Musk contradicted that interview a number of times internally, noting that Twitter is still deeply in the red. So he was either lying in that interview or he was lying to his minority investors.

Also FSD in 2024 will work perfectly