[creshal]

> his is the first time I've seen it applied to programming. Programming is just a means to an end. I've never considered programming to be an industry.

C++ versus Pascal mindset. :)

> This is the first time I've seen it applied to programming. Programming is just a means to an end. I've never considered programming to be an industry.

Yes and no. It did not replace the good accountants who actually orchestrated the whole department, but it got rid of a lot of the low-level grunt work.

AI-supported coding autopilots seem to go in the same direction: The junior devs whose whole job it is to translate architectural and design specifications into excessively verbose boilerplate code will struggle to survive, but the software architects above them will find a new means through which to express the analytical thinking, process planning and understanding of complex dependencies that they're paid for.

[LapsangGuzzler]

> The junior devs whose whole job it is to translate architectural and design specifications into excessively verbose boilerplate code will struggle to survive, but the software architects above them will find a new means through which to express the analytical thinking, process planning and understanding of complex dependencies that they're paid for.

Which will, in turn, further drive shortages of good developer talent long term. The industry thinks there's a tech labor shortage now? Just wait until the ladder has been completely kicked over for young folks trying to find their career footing in tech.

We were all once juniors, doing work that could primarily/completely be replaced by AI. We had to do that grunt work to learn the lessons that make us architects today.

[hellisothers]

The entrenched elite will have finally come for software engineering, you’ll only get to do that cool high level work if you go to the right school, with the right degree, with the right certification. And before anybody says “it’s already like that”, it’s really not.

[the_only_law]

> The entrenched elite will have finally come for software engineering, you’ll only get to do that cool high level work if you go to the right school, with the right degree, with the right certification.

I figured this was going to happen long before ChatGPT, but sadly I failed to find an good exit, because well… most everything else that doesn’t suck is already like that and the golden handcuffs were too tight.

[red-iron-pine]

No, it really is. Hang out at a Stanford or MIT career fair.

The number of non-STEM folks who make it into high-level tech, though certainly greater than zero, is still trivial in comparison to those who go that way early.

[soco]

I wonder how can the future architect get there, if going through the junior stages is suddenly not an option anymore. Because those all-understanding software architects don't just pop into existence.

[mikewarot]

There are new accountants being minted all the time, spreadsheets didn't stop that.

Artists didn't stop because the camera made it possible to do what otherwise took hours with a canvas and oils.

The nature of programming may change, but it's still about using computers to solve problems.

--- Putting on the old guy hat ---

You kids didn't learn programming from magazine articles typing in your favorite little game into a computer that went away when you powered it off.

You didn't have to toggle in a boot loader before you could use the computer.

You didn't dream of one day having a modem and being able to call BBSs, then dream of your own phone line that you didn't have to share.

Yet, ya'll turned out ok, despite all those changes.

It'll be ok, kid... it'll be OK.

Computer programs will always be complex beasties with bugs hiding in the corners. There will always be a class of people willing to find those bugs and make things easier to use. You are that type of person, right? Good!

[LapsangGuzzler]

> Yet, ya'll turned out ok, despite all those changes.

I personally do very well for myself, being in the top 1% of earners in my generation. It deeply concerns me that I can barely afford to buy a house despite this fact. Most of my peers can't even dream of doing something like buying a house right now. And why is this happening? Because computers are being used to extract vast amounts of value from the system to be captured by a tiny fraction of people who are increasingly owning everything. AI will only accelerate this trend.

And perhaps I'm one of the lucky ones to have carved out a good career for myself, but everywhere I look, I see folks struggling more and more. And stuff like AI is about to make life a whole lot harder for them. Yuval Harari talked about the rise of the "useless class" [0], and the challenges with mass unemployment in the future when AI has replaced many jobs.

You can repeat the "it'll be OK" mantra as much as you want, that doesn't make it true.

0: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94o-9zR2bew

[cudgy]

> You kids didn't learn programming from magazine articles typing in your favorite little game into a computer that went away when you powered it off. You didn't have to toggle in a boot loader before you could use the computer. You didn't dream of one day having a modem and being able to call BBSs, then dream of your own phone line that you didn't have to share. Yet, ya'll turned out ok, despite all those changes.

This was at the beginning of the software revolution. Growth of the industry was huge and fast. Entrants into the field were virtually guaranteed a decent career with little competition and almost no automation.

Those days are over. We are dealing with a relatively mature industry now with a new ai tool that is limited by hardware processing power instead of more biological beings. Low level / beginning programming skills will no longer be needed and experienced programmers will evolve into roles that will drive the ai tools at a high level to create solutions, occasionally debug tricky issues that the ai created, and implement code that the ai is unable to generate properly. The last task is the one that will determine the remaining role of the human developer.

[soco]

I'm not sure how the current (or last year's) trend of "don't go to useless college just take this bootcamp" will fare in face of the AI revolution. because I have the impression those bootcamps only teach the technology du jour, none of which teaching those high-level solutions you are hinting about. So yes I also think there will be a need for computer people, just much less "programmers".

[cudgy]

Yes, bootcamps are somewhat effective for simpler, structured, higher level software development like web development frameworks, ecommerce integration like Shopify, and IT support, which is what most of them target. However, it is not as effective for other forms of software development like lower level server-side, devices, operating systems, compilers, db admin, and parallel processing or advanced level skills like requirements gathering, project management, and architecture.

My guess is ai’s will largely replace the benefits of rote memorization learned in these bootcamps and make these skills less marketable to companies.

[creshal]

We've already seen much of this development pre-AI with the rise of no code / low code platforms. Even if you manage to put this particular genie back into the bottle, there's no escaping the increasing automation of programming.

And so far it only increased the demand for software, because for anyone outside software development, cheaper software just means you can leverage your budget to get better faster.

[cudgy]

No code/low code may increase demand for the software frameworks that empower the domain experts, but this does not mean it increases the demand for professional software developers.

[creshal]

Most of the successful deployments I've seen involved a lot of programmers regardless; either to advise the domain experts, or to customize the solution to the specific needs of the organization, be it with custom components, or interfaces to other systems. There's a lot of untapped demand for software solutions that'll keep programmers busy as total project costs fall due to increased automation.

[creshal]

Maybe we'll finally invest into a real education and training pipeline, instead of making people figure out everything on the job, like other professions.

[clbrmbr]

Hard to figure out how to innovate on education (slow to change institutions) in the face of such rapid change.

I actually feel my university education prepared me well for what’s going on. I studied a mix of theoretical comp science, physics, philosophy, and mathematics (esp calculus and number theory). Very little of what I learned is obsoleted, and especially probability theory and NLP are turning out to be very valuable to know when working with even CoPilot.

But man, I feel bad for those studying “programming” as a trade rather than computer science as a scientific / engineering discipline.

[cudgy]

Your background has no domain knowledge though. It is structured and foundational stem skills (except philosophy) which the ai’s can more easily handle.

Domain knowledge about specific industries and what is required by the software seems the more valuable skillset going forward. How does physics and computer science help with that? Communication skills and ability to learn new, more unstructured domains is likely to be more critical like those learned by strong liberal arts disciplines, for example.

[LapsangGuzzler]

They can't. Period. It's the next level of prioritizing the short term at the expense of the long term.

[ilaksh]

Incredibly arrogant, disrespectful, and false. Junior devs who actually write code are beneath you and don't use "analytical thinking" or have to understand processes or dependencies? Ridiculous.

GPT-4 can do all of that stuff. Probably as well or better than you. If you think you still are better, can you do it literally for 24 hours a day? How about 3-6 months from now, are you going to become 50-500% faster/better at your job?

I would love to see a few samples of some real world "architecting" that you have done in the last few months along with the calendar schedule you did that on and then compare you head-to-head with GPT4 and a junior dev. And then we show your executives how that went. Sound good?

[creshal]

> Junior devs who actually write code are beneath you and don't use "analytical thinking" or have to understand processes or dependencies?

They're hardly given a chance to do so when all they're getting is tickets to turn design X or API spec Y into code with no allowance given to make it better. Yes, that's not the workflow in all orgs, but there's a lot of organisations where most people aren't expected or allowed to be creative until they're far up the foodchain. And those will be the first to lay off what they consider meatbag machines. Think Oracle, Accenture, IBM, etc.

With regards to your personal attacks, have a nicer day than you seem to have had until now.

[ilaksh]

They were not personal attacks. Just responding to your arrogance and disrespect towards junior developers.