[mikewarot]

There are new accountants being minted all the time, spreadsheets didn't stop that.

Artists didn't stop because the camera made it possible to do what otherwise took hours with a canvas and oils.

The nature of programming may change, but it's still about using computers to solve problems.

--- Putting on the old guy hat ---

You kids didn't learn programming from magazine articles typing in your favorite little game into a computer that went away when you powered it off.

You didn't have to toggle in a boot loader before you could use the computer.

You didn't dream of one day having a modem and being able to call BBSs, then dream of your own phone line that you didn't have to share.

Yet, ya'll turned out ok, despite all those changes.

It'll be ok, kid... it'll be OK.

Computer programs will always be complex beasties with bugs hiding in the corners. There will always be a class of people willing to find those bugs and make things easier to use. You are that type of person, right? Good!

[LapsangGuzzler]

> Yet, ya'll turned out ok, despite all those changes.

I personally do very well for myself, being in the top 1% of earners in my generation. It deeply concerns me that I can barely afford to buy a house despite this fact. Most of my peers can't even dream of doing something like buying a house right now. And why is this happening? Because computers are being used to extract vast amounts of value from the system to be captured by a tiny fraction of people who are increasingly owning everything. AI will only accelerate this trend.

And perhaps I'm one of the lucky ones to have carved out a good career for myself, but everywhere I look, I see folks struggling more and more. And stuff like AI is about to make life a whole lot harder for them. Yuval Harari talked about the rise of the "useless class" [0], and the challenges with mass unemployment in the future when AI has replaced many jobs.

You can repeat the "it'll be OK" mantra as much as you want, that doesn't make it true.

0: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94o-9zR2bew

[cudgy]

> You kids didn't learn programming from magazine articles typing in your favorite little game into a computer that went away when you powered it off. You didn't have to toggle in a boot loader before you could use the computer. You didn't dream of one day having a modem and being able to call BBSs, then dream of your own phone line that you didn't have to share. Yet, ya'll turned out ok, despite all those changes.

This was at the beginning of the software revolution. Growth of the industry was huge and fast. Entrants into the field were virtually guaranteed a decent career with little competition and almost no automation.

Those days are over. We are dealing with a relatively mature industry now with a new ai tool that is limited by hardware processing power instead of more biological beings. Low level / beginning programming skills will no longer be needed and experienced programmers will evolve into roles that will drive the ai tools at a high level to create solutions, occasionally debug tricky issues that the ai created, and implement code that the ai is unable to generate properly. The last task is the one that will determine the remaining role of the human developer.

[soco]

I'm not sure how the current (or last year's) trend of "don't go to useless college just take this bootcamp" will fare in face of the AI revolution. because I have the impression those bootcamps only teach the technology du jour, none of which teaching those high-level solutions you are hinting about. So yes I also think there will be a need for computer people, just much less "programmers".

[cudgy]

Yes, bootcamps are somewhat effective for simpler, structured, higher level software development like web development frameworks, ecommerce integration like Shopify, and IT support, which is what most of them target. However, it is not as effective for other forms of software development like lower level server-side, devices, operating systems, compilers, db admin, and parallel processing or advanced level skills like requirements gathering, project management, and architecture.

My guess is ai’s will largely replace the benefits of rote memorization learned in these bootcamps and make these skills less marketable to companies.

[creshal]

We've already seen much of this development pre-AI with the rise of no code / low code platforms. Even if you manage to put this particular genie back into the bottle, there's no escaping the increasing automation of programming.

And so far it only increased the demand for software, because for anyone outside software development, cheaper software just means you can leverage your budget to get better faster.

[cudgy]

No code/low code may increase demand for the software frameworks that empower the domain experts, but this does not mean it increases the demand for professional software developers.

[creshal]

Most of the successful deployments I've seen involved a lot of programmers regardless; either to advise the domain experts, or to customize the solution to the specific needs of the organization, be it with custom components, or interfaces to other systems. There's a lot of untapped demand for software solutions that'll keep programmers busy as total project costs fall due to increased automation.