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by Operative0198 1178 days ago
He isn't wrong on any of those predictions.

The dollar has never been at a more precarious position (on a hyper-inflation course and the BRICS are pondering about adopting the Yuan).

Bitcoin (who knows what's coming next, but for sure never seeing 70K again)

Hyperinflation (pretty obvious)

Bear market (most of 2022 was in one, and most probably this year will follow)

Recession (high certainty this will happen. Fed's soft landing is a mirage, history shows a rate cut after aggressive hiking usually leads into one)

Schiff is not outright wrong on his predictions. He just never gave time stipulations for his predictions.
1 comments
riffraff 1178 days ago
Do you realize hyperinflation is generally defined to be 50% per month?

February US inflation is 6% year over year. This is orders of magnitude below "hyper".

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Operative0198 1178 days ago
And the definition of a recession was rescinded last year by the White House.

Is inflation for you better now than it was in 2019?

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Dylan16807 1178 days ago
> And the definition of a recession was rescinded last year by the White House.

It what? Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but that doesn't make you right about recession predictions in general.

> Is inflation for you better now than it was in 2019?

Did he predict "higher than 2019"? If "higher than 2019" wasn't his prediction then I don't see why it matters that "higher than 2019" happened.

And that's not much of a prediction. 2019's inflation was below target.

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Operative0198 1178 days ago
> It what?

Muddied the definition of a recession when the question came up.

> Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but that doesn't make you right about recession predictions in general.

Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions.

> 2019's inflation was below target.

Which target? The one the Fed determines? Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that.

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Dylan16807 1178 days ago
> Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions.

So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence?

> Which target?

2%

> Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that.

...have you looked at the trend, though? Inflation was climbing higher and higher until last June, and then it dropped by more than half. For the last 3-8 months the inflation rate has been about 4%.

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Operative0198 1178 days ago
> So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence?

Economists make wrong predictions all the time. Am saying Schiff is not exactly entirely wrong on some of the ones he's made in the past.

> ...have you looked at the trend, though? Inflation was climbing higher and higher until last June, and then it dropped by more than half. For the last 3-8 months the inflation rate has been about 4%.

Have you? The last time the inflation rate was even near 4% was in April 2021 [0].

[0] https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate

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