[Operative0198]

> It what?

Muddied the definition of a recession when the question came up.

> Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but that doesn't make you right about recession predictions in general.

Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions.

> 2019's inflation was below target.

Which target? The one the Fed determines? Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that.

[Dylan16807]

> Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions.

So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence?

> Which target?

2%

> Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that.

...have you looked at the trend, though? Inflation was climbing higher and higher until last June, and then it dropped by more than half. For the last 3-8 months the inflation rate has been about 4%.

[Operative0198]

> So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence?

Economists make wrong predictions all the time. Am saying Schiff is not exactly entirely wrong on some of the ones he's made in the past.

> ...have you looked at the trend, though? Inflation was climbing higher and higher until last June, and then it dropped by more than half. For the last 3-8 months the inflation rate has been about 4%.

Have you? The last time the inflation rate was even near 4% was in April 2021 [0].

[0] https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate

[Dylan16807]

Wrong chart. That's a rolling average of 12 months.

The peak was in June, so it's still dragging the yearly number up. The last 8 months were much lower than the previous several.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mo...

https://i.imgur.com/MBwyLjJ.png

Though that chart also shows inflation dropping...

[Operative0198]

I don't what you are on about. The chart figures I linked is sourced from the monthly CPI rate shared by BLS every month.

You are obviously trolling at this point.

[Dylan16807]

The main inflation number that everyone talks about compares each month to one year previous.

When inflation changes rapidly, it gives you outdated information.

When you look at the underlying data for each month compared to the previous month, you can see that the spike was higher than 9% and we are currently lower than 6%.

[dalyons]

It’s not trolling just because you aren’t understanding what’s being said. Recent MoM figures show inflation is way down, the annualized will follow down shortly.