[sremani]

unemployment is a lagging indicator of economic malice. also, we have boomers a large generation retiring from work force, so even if the economic pie is not expanding or stagnant, there are labor pressures and these are not evenly distributed in the economy.

Trades is seeing phenomenal demand for labor, where as white collar people are going to get pink slips esp. in the fields (finance, tech, commercial real estate management, refinancing/mortgage) that have boomed during last decade.

[namaria]

None of what you said is either false or evidence of an ongoing economy crash.

[sremani]

what I meant from my comment is, when there is un-deniable evidence, it is too late!

[namaria]

And when there is no evidence, it's to soon. It cuts both ways: you can't predict market movement, and after it's moved you can't do anything about it... As J.P. Morgan put it (when asked what the market would do that day): "It will fluctuate".

[sremani]

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. When there is no evidence.. there is no evidence that is it. Predictions are hard, but anyone forward looking has to make at least assumptions. The goal is to be less wrong or err on the side of caution.

[namaria]

Sure keep predicting economic collapse and eventually you'll be right. People make careers out of it. In good times there will always be good and bad indicators to pick from.

[erik_seaberg]

(it’s “malaise”)

[sremani]

thank you! (was using the wrong spelling all the time, mentally of course)