[namaria]

And when there is no evidence, it's to soon. It cuts both ways: you can't predict market movement, and after it's moved you can't do anything about it... As J.P. Morgan put it (when asked what the market would do that day): "It will fluctuate".

[sremani]

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. When there is no evidence.. there is no evidence that is it. Predictions are hard, but anyone forward looking has to make at least assumptions. The goal is to be less wrong or err on the side of caution.

[namaria]

Sure keep predicting economic collapse and eventually you'll be right. People make careers out of it. In good times there will always be good and bad indicators to pick from.