[oneoff786]

Oh good statistics. Tell me what proportion of sexual violence is perpetuated by trans women against non trans women? Or what kind of sexual violence is committed by men against women in unisex bathrooms? Or perhaps a study on whether the belief that forbidding trans women from entering women’s bathrooms would materially alter sexual violence rates at all? Because virtually all sexual violence is not a random on the spot violent rape and if it were it most certainly would not be abated by rules suggesting it’s not ok for you to enter a bathroom.

> It is also a safety issue in contact sports if males are allowed to compete with women.

Women’s sports rarely allow heavy contact, and we are plenty comfortable with other natural differences such as height and weight. We also have plenty of precedent for people playing things like Ultimate Frisbee as a contact co-ed sport and things are fine.

[xcxs]

https://fairplayforwomen.com/transgender-male-criminality-se...

Trans-identifying males have the same patterns of criminality as other males. The ones in prison are even more likely to have been locked up for sex crimes, when compared to other men in prison.

[oneoff786]

Rebuttal

https://aninjusticemag.com/are-50-of-trans-women-in-prison-s...

Largely the point being that this sample would only include prisoners with serious long punishment crimes, like sex crimes. It’s hardly a random sample.

Probability of sex crime given you’re in prison for a serious crime is not a reliable indicator of baseline probability of a sex crime.

[xcxs]

That's a weak rebuttal, it relies on the claim that there could be hundreds upon hundreds of trans-identifying males imprisoned that no-one knows about.

Also see this: https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-rorschach-test/

It explains how additional data including from later years, and from New Zealand, supports the observation that these men are more likely to be in prison for sex crimes than men in general, and much, much more likely than actual women.

[oneoff786]

It’s a strong rebuttal because this is not a random sample. It tells you nothing. These are not credible interpretations of data.