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by csomar 1231 days ago
Indeed. He'd have had more respect (and less suspicion) if he's tweet was something like: foreshake detected at xx,yy location, given the nature of the location, high probability of an earthquake of 7.5M.

He's fishing for attention from the general public.
2 comments
kelnos 1231 days ago
Even if he said that, it'd be nonsense. Foreshocks usually do not precede larger earthquakes (https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes). Yes, sometimes they do, but it's uncommon. If every time you see foreshocks you predict a larger earthquake, sure, you'll very very occasionally be right. But you haven't done anything useful with your predictions.

(Note that I wouldn't be surprised if this is the kind of person who makes tons of predictions on Twitter, and then deletes the tweets when they turn out to be incorrect, leaving only the correct ones.)

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jacquesm 1231 days ago
Agreed, but it is specific enough to at least see if he can do it again, once = random, twice = coincidence but the chances of doing this twice are pretty remote.
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csomar 1231 days ago
What's exactly specific? I'm not an expert in Geology but my understanding is that these hot spots are largely known. The outlier prediction will be for a location of an earthquake outside these hot spots. Here is a random map I found on the internet but I think matches a few ones I've seen before: https://broadview.sacredsf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Ma...
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kelnos 1231 days ago
Heh, that map shows the west coast of the US as completely covered. I assure you that we don't have daily earthquakes that are even noticeable, let alone destructive. I live in an area covered by orange circles, and have for nearly 20 years, and I've never felt a M7+ earthquake. The ones I usually do feel are no more than M4.5 or so, and happen at most a few times a year.

My point is that it doesn't really matter if you "predict" an earthquake inside or outside these hot spots: you will nearly always be wrong. And when you are right, it will be due to luck.

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defrost 1231 days ago
For a much better idea of frequency, intensity, depth, and hot zones ..

Animated map: All earthquakes, 15 years, Jan 1, 2001 - Dec 31, 2015

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ed0tGlfJHiY

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