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by jacquesm 1231 days ago
Agreed, but it is specific enough to at least see if he can do it again, once = random, twice = coincidence but the chances of doing this twice are pretty remote.
1 comments

What's exactly specific? I'm not an expert in Geology but my understanding is that these hot spots are largely known. The outlier prediction will be for a location of an earthquake outside these hot spots. Here is a random map I found on the internet but I think matches a few ones I've seen before: https://broadview.sacredsf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Ma...
Heh, that map shows the west coast of the US as completely covered. I assure you that we don't have daily earthquakes that are even noticeable, let alone destructive. I live in an area covered by orange circles, and have for nearly 20 years, and I've never felt a M7+ earthquake. The ones I usually do feel are no more than M4.5 or so, and happen at most a few times a year.

My point is that it doesn't really matter if you "predict" an earthquake inside or outside these hot spots: you will nearly always be wrong. And when you are right, it will be due to luck.

For a much better idea of frequency, intensity, depth, and hot zones ..

Animated map: All earthquakes, 15 years, Jan 1, 2001 - Dec 31, 2015

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ed0tGlfJHiY