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by iinnPP 1240 days ago
Thank you for the very thoughtful reply. I am reading it now but wanted to respond in a timely manner. I do try to keep my opinion on important events informed, but have been finding it increasingly difficult since Jan 2020.

I lean towards promoting a solution that doesn't turn this invasion into WW3. Preferably a solution that results in fewer deaths. That does also include worldwide deaths that for example may stem from the financial fallout of the war itself. As well as a comparison of lives saved/saveable using the money being spent.

I'm very aware this is a privileged position that I can justify while living in Canada. Knowing I would find it incredibly difficult if not impossible to maintain my position if the conflict was localized. I like to believe I would still lean to societal benefit, but for that I have zero confidence.

I primarily ponder on the options allowing for an eventual de-escalation being limited or even non-existent. Is there a route to an end of the invasion that you see as viable? What is needed to get there and who do you think could make it happen?

Thank you again for the informative response. I've come out with better information than I had this morning.

1 comments

Thank you for giving me the opportunity to respond, especially given I hadn’t made it clear as toward whom my ire was directed.

Unfortunately, because Putin has gone all-in with this war, he has backed himself into a corner. There is no off-ramp that he can now take to save face. I think the hesitance of the western powers in arming Ukraine has been an attempt to provide Putin with off-ramps and minimise both civilian and military casualties on both sides. They have slowly begun to realise that Putin has no interest in diplomacy, which is why they have stepped up arms shipments.

The way this ends is in russian military defeat. That might not happen before they lose about half a million soldiers though, and we’re about 20% of the way there. It might also end sooner if the Ukrainians are able to expel all russian forces from all of Ukrainian territory, and then build sufficient defences so that further border skirmishes are futile. The Ukrainians need a whole load of equipment for that though.