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by yakshaving_jgt 1236 days ago
Thank you for giving me the opportunity to respond, especially given I hadn’t made it clear as toward whom my ire was directed.

Unfortunately, because Putin has gone all-in with this war, he has backed himself into a corner. There is no off-ramp that he can now take to save face. I think the hesitance of the western powers in arming Ukraine has been an attempt to provide Putin with off-ramps and minimise both civilian and military casualties on both sides. They have slowly begun to realise that Putin has no interest in diplomacy, which is why they have stepped up arms shipments.

The way this ends is in russian military defeat. That might not happen before they lose about half a million soldiers though, and we’re about 20% of the way there. It might also end sooner if the Ukrainians are able to expel all russian forces from all of Ukrainian territory, and then build sufficient defences so that further border skirmishes are futile. The Ukrainians need a whole load of equipment for that though.