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by jupp0r 1253 days ago
Unemployment is at a record low. US economy added 223k new jobs in December. US Q3 GDP increased annualized 3.2% over Q2.

Some companies are doing layoffs (mainly those that overhired during COVID), others aren't. Look at the data instead of clickbait headlines and everything looks much less bleak.

If you are really certain you can forecast how the economy is going to do with high accuracy, get a job at some hedge fund and get rich.
1 comments
abirch 1253 days ago
Have you seen housing? https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/12/01/real-estate-... it's going to get hit even harder.

Unemployment is low due to a lot of early retirement/retirement. It is obvious we're headed for a recession, the question is how bad will it be. Will China's housing market collapse?

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jupp0r 1253 days ago
Retirement doesn't explain the economy adding 230k jobs. Retirement leads to the same jobs being backfilled.

Housing market is a completely different discussion. Interest rates rising of course lead to price drops here.

I'll start worrying about a recession once GDP falls and jobs are eliminated instead of added from the economy.

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abirch 1253 days ago
Retirement explains the low unemployment % since they're no longer part of the workforce.

The jobs added are great, especially since we need ~140K additional jobs per month due to the growing US Population. (that number probably dropped due to reduced immigration)

Unfortunately I don't work in all sectors of America so even if the GDP goes up to a China-inflated 10% or higher but I'm unemployed, it'll suck.

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jupp0r 1253 days ago
Sure but that doesn't mean there will be a recession. Sometimes it's just necessary to switch fields (ie horseshoe makers when automobiles were getting popular).
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mdorazio 1253 days ago
Which part are you referring to? Price increases slowing and stalling? Because that’s not exactly the end of the world for the housing market.
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abirch 1253 days ago
Housing starts (new construction). Home sales (it's harder and harder to get a mortgage). If you know any real estate agents take them out to lunch because most are hurting. Oddly housing prices aren't dropping as much as they should due to the higher interest rates, i.e., people are staying in their homes so not too much inventory.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-single-family-housing-... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-28/us-housin...

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