Unemployment is low due to a lot of early retirement/retirement. It is obvious we're headed for a recession, the question is how bad will it be. Will China's housing market collapse?
Retirement explains the low unemployment % since they're no longer part of the workforce.
The jobs added are great, especially since we need ~140K additional jobs per month due to the growing US Population. (that number probably dropped due to reduced immigration)
Unfortunately I don't work in all sectors of America so even if the GDP goes up to a China-inflated 10% or higher but I'm unemployed, it'll suck.
Sure but that doesn't mean there will be a recession. Sometimes it's just necessary to switch fields (ie horseshoe makers when automobiles were getting popular).
Housing starts (new construction). Home sales (it's harder and harder to get a mortgage). If you know any real estate agents take them out to lunch because most are hurting. Oddly housing prices aren't dropping as much as they should due to the higher interest rates, i.e., people are staying in their homes so not too much inventory.
Housing market is a completely different discussion. Interest rates rising of course lead to price drops here.
I'll start worrying about a recession once GDP falls and jobs are eliminated instead of added from the economy.