[PKop]

The reserve currency built atop the petrodollar system produces a cycle of the rest of world needing to acquire dollars to trade for commodities and most other commerce around the world. Because it gains this reserve status, it has stability and confidence, and thus since countries need it to buy input commodities and energy, they acquire foreign exchange surpluses by selling goods to the US and running trade surpluses. Since they have stockpiles of dollars, it is conducive that these dollars are also used for trade of other goods and also the creation of borrowing and lending demand in dollars outside of the US.

If countries then acquire dollar surpluses by running trade surpluses with the US, the US by contrast has a trade deficit. This is equivalent to having a capital surplus for the US. It means excess capital is funneled back into the US into the capital markets buying stocks and bonds.

This is maybe a chicken and egg phenomenon..is it the demand to invest in the US creating a capital surplus that creates the dynamic whereby the $ becomes reserve currency and the US runs increasingly large trade deficits? Is it the military/political power that creates all of the rest? Probably all of above. But in any case the reserve currency system has at its core the financial markets of the US that the rest of world invests their surplus into, incentivizing them to produce in excess and trade real goods and work with US in exchange for paper IOU's that they can invest into the US markets.

A big aspect of this $ financial/trade system isn't just the $ as currency itself but the unique and important position of US treasury debt as the premier reserve asset that countries store their surplus and forex reserve in, and which is the center piece of the eurodollar[0] lending markets.

[0] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/eurodollar.asp

[lottin]

Trade deficits and capital surpluses go hand in hand. This is easy to see. If the value of your imports exceeds the value of your exports (i.e. you have a trade deficit), the excess imports must be financed somehow—either borrowing money abroad or selling assets (such as equity) to the rest of the world. This results in a net flow of money into the country, i.e. a capital surplus.

[rjzzleep]

The only problem with that is that because of the sanctions the Euro demand has plummeted and all major economies outside the west are dumping their dollar reserves and are moving to non dollar settlements, Saudi Arabia and the GCC just signed a massive cooperation deal with China and some other places have pegged their currencies to the Ruble. Yes the dollar is strong and will stay for a while, but to believe that nothing has changed in the recent past is to be wilfully oblivious of all the idiotic policies that have weakened the Euro and the Dollars position in the world.

[gumby]

There are waves of that effort periodically (use a different reserve currency) but they always peter out. It's simply too hard for reasons in my original comment. Eventually, yes, but unlikely in the lifetime of anyone alive today.

The policies you describe as "idiotic" are rationally imposed. The assumption is that they will weaken Russia's war effort, and that the cost, while high, is much lower than fighting a hot war down the road if Russia is allowed to continue to invade its neighbours.

You can argue that the policies aren't working, but while looks like that in the headlines, if you look at what's going on inside Russia all the lines are pointing down, even if the government's own figures claim otherwise. You could argue that a slightly different class of restrictions could be more effective.

But the only basis for "idiotic" is if you think it's none of the EU's business if Russia chooses to invade and try to conquer one of their neighbors.

[mejutoco]

Could you elaborate on why sanctions are "idiotic" in your opinion?

[gumby]

> This is maybe a chicken and egg phenomenon

Unlike the chicken/egg situation we know precisely when this system was born: the Bretton Woods Conference, 1944.

To some degree of course it recognized what was happening anyway (uh oh, chicken/egg is back) but rather than letting things evolve it built upon emerging practice to build the modern global financial system (basically still in place despite further evolution, like floating currencies).