It is absolutely possible to succeed as a solo indie game developer, even if the likes of Minecraft or Stardew Valley or Dwarf Fortress are pretty extreme outliers. But it's nice when they do succeed.
How many of those failing 80% were working as hard as the Tarn brothers or Eric Barone? I'd be surprised if 1% of them were.
Luck is a big factor, but working hard is an often underrated component. Equating game development, or anything in life, as a lottery is a terrible mindset to be in and sets one up for failure and mediocrity.
Success lies somewhere between cutting one's own losses early, and unrelenting stubbornness.
I'd say even that is generous. Especially once you consider opportunity cost -- length of development, contractor expenses, hardware, lost potential earnings if employed, etc.
My VR game eventually sold 130k copies over four years, but amortized over 1.5 years of development, $100k contracting expenses, $25k hardware, most copies sold at sale price, and another partner to split earnings with I still would have made significantly more as an employed principal or even senior engineer.
As far as indie game success goes, selling this many copies puts me on the far end of the percentile scale. Oof.
There is of course the non-monetary "compensation" aspect. I created something I am truly proud of, tons of people have either seen or played it and enjoyed the experience, and I crossed a huge item off the ol' bucket list. Even if the game had only sold 10k copies, I still would have called it a win personally.
Luck is a big factor, but working hard is an often underrated component. Equating game development, or anything in life, as a lottery is a terrible mindset to be in and sets one up for failure and mediocrity.
Success lies somewhere between cutting one's own losses early, and unrelenting stubbornness.