[paradox242]

Economics as a "science" is when psychology majors cosplay as mathematicians. They demonstrate all of the trappings of a science; specialist jargon, mathematical notation, journals, conferences, but have scant little to show for it. They will be the first to tell you that the economic system is too complex for any one of them to understand, and point at "markers" to which they attach a level of causal significance that would make a real mathematician blush.

They are throwing darts in the dark.

God bless them, it's a hard job and someone should probably be looking into it, but never kid yourself about what their predictions are actually capable of.

[adam_arthur]

You’re mistaken.

The principles of the economy are quite clear. If people have incentive to do something, they will. If you alter incentives, you alter behavior, everything stems from that.

The problem with making predictions is that the macro economy has billions of variables which obviously all cannot be realistically modeled. That doesn’t invalidate the validity of theory. Economic theory works just the same as physics if you were able to observe and model every value accurately. Most physics problems deal with far fewer variables and can be simulated and replicated quite easily.

In this case its easy to predict because Powell has indicated for all intents and purposes that he will create a recession. And if he wants to, he 100% has the power to do it regardless of any other variable.

[imtringued]

The economy is like a feral dog. People put too much trust in the people holding the leash. They can hold the dog down but they can't make it walk.

The goal is to motivate it but also to prevent it from running away.