[adam_arthur]

You’re mistaken.

The principles of the economy are quite clear. If people have incentive to do something, they will. If you alter incentives, you alter behavior, everything stems from that.

The problem with making predictions is that the macro economy has billions of variables which obviously all cannot be realistically modeled. That doesn’t invalidate the validity of theory. Economic theory works just the same as physics if you were able to observe and model every value accurately. Most physics problems deal with far fewer variables and can be simulated and replicated quite easily.

In this case its easy to predict because Powell has indicated for all intents and purposes that he will create a recession. And if he wants to, he 100% has the power to do it regardless of any other variable.