I recently saw a headline that some economists' model showed a 100% certainty of a recession in 2023. Made me think, there's not going to be a recession. Economists have never been good at predicting anything.
Look at the signs. We have high inflation, rapidly increasing interest rates, declining stock prices. 2 negative down quarters, only 10k jobs added vs 1M estimated.
Why do you think the odds of recession are low? What signs besides, economists being in agreement, do you see?
Inflation is dropping like a rock, but it takes a while to fully show itself in the official numbers because it's measured year-over-year. The supply chain crunch is over. We've gotten through huge interest rate increases and only have one more half-point hike to get through before the Fed levels off. All those shocks should have put us in a recession in 2022 but didn't. Stocks and home prices dropped, but the real economy chugged along. So, why, now that we're through the worst of it, would we get a recession in mid 2023?
I'm not sure that we won't have a recession. But I'm not as convinced as everyone that it's a certainty.
Look at the signs. We have high inflation, rapidly increasing interest rates, declining stock prices. 2 negative down quarters, only 10k jobs added vs 1M estimated.
Why do you think the odds of recession are low? What signs besides, economists being in agreement, do you see?