[dimal]

Inflation is dropping like a rock, but it takes a while to fully show itself in the official numbers because it's measured year-over-year. The supply chain crunch is over. We've gotten through huge interest rate increases and only have one more half-point hike to get through before the Fed levels off. All those shocks should have put us in a recession in 2022 but didn't. Stocks and home prices dropped, but the real economy chugged along. So, why, now that we're through the worst of it, would we get a recession in mid 2023?

I'm not sure that we won't have a recession. But I'm not as convinced as everyone that it's a certainty.