[typon]

Tesla's current share price is extremely inflated - the market has priced in Elon Musk's genius magic. If this genius magic turns out to be a total fraud, Tesla stock price should go down to levels reflecting the stock price of a similarly sized/revenue producing car company.

To give you an idea:

Tesla revenue: 74.86B

Toyota revenue: 260.13B

Tesla market cap: 498.56B

Toyota market cap: 234.96B

That's roughly a 7.4x difference in expectation vs. reality.

[shkkmo]

I would hazard that some of that expectation is due to Tesla's potential for growth due to expected growth of the EV market.

I also think that a lot of anti-Musk sentiment has already been priced in. While a Twitter bankruptcy would absolutely have some further impact on that sentiment, it doesn't seem immediately obvious that it would wipeout all of Musk's fanatical support.

Given that, an immediate drop to 13% of Tesla's current value seems like a significant overestimate if Tesla keeps hitting sales and production targets. If Twitter bankruptcy accompanies a significant reduction in Tesla sales, I could see a drop of that size or larger, but not from a Twitter bankruptcy alone.

[typon]

If not for Musks genius magic, why do you think Tesla deserves to be priced 7x higher than Toyota? I can see an argument for 2x maybe? But 7x is a massive difference considering Toyota is a not a company run by frauds, it is a serious company with ability to pivot into EV market in due time.

[shkkmo]

Toyota and other manufacturers will absolutely pivot into EVs, but most of their gains in EV sales will come (on average) at the cost of non-EV sales as the non-EV market shrinks.

Tesla however does not sell non-EVs so stands only to gain as the non-EV market shrinks. This makes up some amount of the expectations that give Tesla a higher share price per current revue than other car makers.

Thus even if Musk's "genius magic" effect on stock price goes away complete, that seems unlikey to eliminate all expectations for more growth from Tesla than other car manufacturers.

That said, I think we mostly agree now as I think a drop by 2/3rds in Tesla price is not out of the realms of possibility. It's hard to guage how big the "genius magic" effect is on stock price.

Personally, I suspect that significant issues (especially regulatory) around FSD are more likely to crater the growth expectations of Tesla than any Twitter bankruptcy.

[typon]

Tesla has already dropped 24% since we last talked ;)

[typon]

Sound analysis, pretty much agree with you.