[typon]

If not for Musks genius magic, why do you think Tesla deserves to be priced 7x higher than Toyota? I can see an argument for 2x maybe? But 7x is a massive difference considering Toyota is a not a company run by frauds, it is a serious company with ability to pivot into EV market in due time.

[shkkmo]

Toyota and other manufacturers will absolutely pivot into EVs, but most of their gains in EV sales will come (on average) at the cost of non-EV sales as the non-EV market shrinks.

Tesla however does not sell non-EVs so stands only to gain as the non-EV market shrinks. This makes up some amount of the expectations that give Tesla a higher share price per current revue than other car makers.

Thus even if Musk's "genius magic" effect on stock price goes away complete, that seems unlikey to eliminate all expectations for more growth from Tesla than other car manufacturers.

That said, I think we mostly agree now as I think a drop by 2/3rds in Tesla price is not out of the realms of possibility. It's hard to guage how big the "genius magic" effect is on stock price.

Personally, I suspect that significant issues (especially regulatory) around FSD are more likely to crater the growth expectations of Tesla than any Twitter bankruptcy.

[typon]

Tesla has already dropped 24% since we last talked ;)

[typon]

Sound analysis, pretty much agree with you.