[nordsieck]

> Both cooperate -> both go free for a moment, spend some months or maybe even a few years living in fear, then with 95% chance go to prison for life. That's because the whole deal is about saving work for the Feds, but they will put in that work if needed, and come back with bullet-proof case.

This isn't necessarily the case. The Feds convict on 95% of the cases they decide to prosecute. Which means that they decide not to prosecute marginal cases.

It could be the case that there just isn't enough evidence to bury them.

[zeven7]

That's a generic case. Parent is describing a specific case in which prisoners determine they have a 95% chance they will be convicted. Given such a case, parent's argument follows logically. How many cases the Fed prosecutes or convicts is irrelevant to the scenario.

[TeMPOraL]

Yes, in this scenario the prisoners assume the Feds are going to bring a case in eventually. This, I believe, tracks the real-world situation, because this case is already notable enough that the government is determined to see it through, however long it takes to prepare.

But even if not, then have the prisoners multiply that 95% by whatever they believe is the chance Feds will eventually prosecute. Is it 50/50? That just gives them 52% chance of avoiding spending rest of their lives in prison, which is still not a good bet.

(Note that prisoners won't be unbiased here - the Feds will be trying to make them believe this chance is much higher than it really is.)

There is a third factor here, whether the prisoners can disappear before Feds go after them - I assumed they effectively can't, and/or it comes with sacrifices so big that it's not much different than prison.

[nordsieck]

> But even if not, then have the prisoners multiply that 95% by whatever they believe is the chance Feds will eventually prosecute. Is it 50/50?

Crucially, these particular prisoners have a very good idea of whether the Feds have enough evidence to go to trial (assuming the Feds get everything, which is probably prudent to assume). Especially with the advice of good council, which they apparently can afford.

> Note that prisoners won't be unbiased here - the Feds will be trying to make them believe this chance is much higher than it really is.

Which is mitigated by the advice of council. Of course, there is a chance that they are influenced too far in the opposite direction - their layers may be banking on raking in fees from going to trial.