[nordsieck]

> But even if not, then have the prisoners multiply that 95% by whatever they believe is the chance Feds will eventually prosecute. Is it 50/50?

Crucially, these particular prisoners have a very good idea of whether the Feds have enough evidence to go to trial (assuming the Feds get everything, which is probably prudent to assume). Especially with the advice of good council, which they apparently can afford.

> Note that prisoners won't be unbiased here - the Feds will be trying to make them believe this chance is much higher than it really is.

Which is mitigated by the advice of council. Of course, there is a chance that they are influenced too far in the opposite direction - their layers may be banking on raking in fees from going to trial.