[dzdt]

Yes 2023 is sure to be the year of the Linux desktop. (/s)

The reality is the computer form factor involving a keyboard is slowly becoming more and more of a niche. Windows has a lock on this niche for business and gaming. For other home use there is strong competition from apple and for education there is strong competition from chromebook.

Linux is still not really in the running, sorry.

[yjftsjthsd-h]

On the contrary, Linux is in a good position for the same reason you think it isn't. As the desktop/laptop market shrinks to advanced users, it loses the long tail of users who weren't technically capable enough to switch. At the same time, WINE/proton and even some native ports have vastly improved the gaming scene on Linux, and a decent chunk of non-gaming applications too. Sure, there will always be certain business applications that refuse to work on anything but actual Windows, but Linux works for a decent and growing part of the shrinking niche that is "real computers".

[encryptluks2]

Just played some games on Linux Steam yesterday. It works so smooth. The Steam client is actually buggy at times with a tiling WM, but all the games worked great.. even the oned with Proton.

[formerly_proven]

It's actually amazing how well games work under Proton. Even a significant number of multiplayer titles just work, despite anti-cheat. There's some "random problems" sometimes with some titles, sure... but that's also true on Windows. Interestingly the problematic titles are more or less exactly opposite to Windows - new titles tend to work well on Windows and perhaps have issues on Linux (requiring some specific launch options or Proton version, perhaps graphical glitches). Meanwhile older titles are often problematic on Windows, but are less so on Linux. Might just be my selection bias though.

[naiveai]

Until and unless Microsoft Office products are on Linux natively and are supported by Microsoft, Linux will never be a mainstream operating system. And that's never going to happen.

[gs17]

The web based Office 365 my university gives us seems to work as well on Linux as any other platform AFAIK (unfortunately that's still not perfect). It did claim to need Edge for some things, but that's relatively minor.

[viraptor]

This is becoming less and less true every day. Both online office 360 and gsuite are popular in offices these days with no ms office installed on the device. Outside of specific business roles, I haven't seen it in a long while. I've even run into a medical clinic running on libreoffice.

[thesuperbigfrog]

My Android phone runs native Microsoft Office apps, so we are half-way there.

I am just waiting for Microsoft to give up on Windows-on-Arm and instead create a Microsoft-branded Linux distribution that has an actual Windows subsystem for Linux (that is, a compatibility / emulation layer similar to Wine or Proton to run legacy Windows software).

Decades of backward compatibility makes Windows a resource hog. I do not think it can make the jump to Arm or RISC-V easily.

[Godel_unicode]

Huh? The move from x86 is hampered by making binaries compiled for x86 work on ARM, it has nothing to do with performance.

[rolenthedeep]

Every business I've ever been part of in my entire adult life has used Google docs or libreoffice. I genuinely haven't seen MS office since high school.

I worked for a fortune 500, and they used a custom Unix type OS with libreoffice. We ended up using mostly Google docs though.

[Zardoz84]

There isn't any more a "native" office. Now it's a web app -> Office 365

[Gordonjcp]

Ironically enough I've found that O365 works far better on Firefox and Chrome on Linux than it does on those browsers on Windows, and Microsoft O365's support team warn against even attempting to use Windows 10 and Edge.

[jakogut]

> Sure, there will always be certain business applications that refuse to work on anything but actual Windows

I disagree with this statement, especially in the case where there's somebody motivated enough to patch Wine to support specific applications.

At the end of the day, Windows applications expect a set of interfaces. As long as those interfaces exist and work as expected, the application will work.

[kjs3]

Not all issues are technical issues. There might be licensing reasons why 'actual Windows' is required. Such nonsense is not unknown.

[phendrenad2]

Unlikey. PC gamers don't care if they're running Windows or Linux, they just want the top 10 games to run. Linux can't even do that.

And the business world will never switch to Linux.

[rolenthedeep]

I suggest you check which of the top 10 games run on Linux.

[phendrenad2]

I (of course) did, and it seems like it proves my point.

[Zardoz84]

Sorry, but does it.

[veridies]

I think OP's point is that there's one more major use case — gaming — for which Windows has a newly viable competitor. It's not that Linux is going to replace Windows, but that Windows could suffer a death by a thousand cuts. I'll note that more and more offices that I encounter seem to be switching to Chromebooks.

[KronisLV]

I actually wrote about using Linux as a daily driver for a week for everything, gaming included: https://blog.kronis.dev/articles/a-week-of-linux-instead-of-...

In short, Proton is making pretty good progress and anyone can check their own Steam library with ProtonDB, to see how many of the titles they care about are likely to work.

Out of the popular mainstream games, around a half will work on Linux, whereas in the case of my Steam library (mostly indie titles) that figure is closer to 75%. This is no doubt thanks to shipping games now being simple in most of the popular game engines out there (like Unity, Unreal and even Godot). However, some games have the occasional bug, whereas others just straight up refuse to launch.

Also many users don't use things like AMD Software, but I personally didn't really find a good alternative for it on Linux, to limit my GPUs power usage and alter the fan curve, CoreCtrl coming close but not quite being a viable replacement: https://gitlab.com/corectrl/corectrl

Back to games, there will be issues with either really old niche titles that you might want to play, or many of the modern games that have multiplayer components (and anti-cheat systems), or sometimes even two games from the same publisher/developer might have one of them be available on Linux but not the other (e.g. War Thunder works but Enlisted doesn't).

In short, Linux is definitely getting better and might already be sufficient as a desktop daily driver even for the folks who want to do some gaming, but isn't a 1:1 replacement and some things just won't work for a variety of reasons. That said, claiming that "The Year of the Linux Desktop" might eventually come no longer feels delusional - it might just be 5-20 years until we get there for regular folks.

This probably wouldn't have happened without Valve's involvement, as well as all of the people who work on Wine and other software like that.

[pjmlp]

Games developed on Windows desktops, targeted for Windows desktops, running by translating the Windows API.

[pessimizer]

Does that ultimately matter? Proton/WINE etc. create a compatibility layer for Windows on Linux, and WSL/Cygwin etc. creates a compatibility layer for Linux on Windows. If one is cheaper and offers less bullshit, the other one is threatened. It's a moat coming down.

[pjmlp]

OS/2 has proven how much it matters.

WSL is nothing new, the only thing it brings to the table is that we don't need to install VMWare or Virtual Box.

I don't dual boot since 2005.

[encryptluks2]

A lot of games run on Linux natively and newer games are using Vulkan. We can't help that the feds didn't go after Microsoft for paying game devs to try to lock non-console games to Windows.

[blibble]

wine runs older windows games better than modern Windows

with Microsoft's declining focus on compatibility, the time is coming where the majority of Windows games now run best on something that isn't Windows

(not to mention the lack of ads, spyware, general lack of stability and forced reboots)

[pjmlp]

If you search for Windows XP, Vista, Windows 7, Windows 8,...., versus Linux, you will find similar arguments being made as prophecy of the great migration.

[blibble]

previously there wasn't an extremely profitable, market leading, privately owned gaming company with a founder that is completely and utterly determined to ditch Microsoft

and share the result of that freely with the world

[mholm]

If using Windows is death by a thousand cuts, using Linux is obliteration by ten thousand.

Linux has completed 90% of the work, but the last 10% (usability) is a long way away.

[loloquwowndueo]

Dunno man, I’ve been using Linux on the desktop for almost 3 decades. It’s been ok for me :) conversely I can’t stand using windows for more than a few minutes - luckily I don’t have to do this often.

[oriolid]

If you're a veteran Linux user, you probably know where to look for config files and how to hack them. Trying to use Linux using GUI only, whichever you choose, is awful. It's like the designers copied the worst ideas from both Windows and MacOS on purpose and then added some of their own.

[goosedragons]

You don't need to hack config files. The big DEs have GUI settings for pretty much everything macOS or Windows does. The only reason it might not seem like it is tutorial websites where it's easier to post a one line command then screenshots for 7 different GUIs.

[hutzlibu]

"it's easier to post a one line command then screenshots for 7 different GUIs"

Yeah, that's the thing. It often feels GUIs on linux are meshed together from at least 7 different styles and paradigms and too often they are indeed made like this.

So in Ubuntu for example I sometimes had to click left to close a window and sometimes right.

What laypersons want, is one single way to do things, that works. But you just won't get far, without the terminal. That is, things do run pretty much out of the box if you are lucky - until they don't. And then good luck trying to fix it without the terminal. I can parse and usually fix cryptic error messages and logs, but my father (who is a trained engineer, but no english speaker nor programmer) cannot. Unless of course there is a driver issue. I seldom can fix them and I encountered too many over the years.

In either case, I am lucky that linux exists and I am now off to try out EndeavourOS ..

[mitthrowaway2]

I prefer using the GUI, but frequently find I have to hop back into the terminal to chmod/chown some file that's ended up without the appropriate permissions. I think a casual user would probably give up at that point.

[lmm]

> If you're a veteran Linux user, you probably know where to look for config files and how to hack them.

Unfortunately these days even that keeps getting changed. Part of the reason I'm happier on FreeBSD.

[Zardoz84]

Using KDE, everything can be changed using only a mouse (or a finger with a touch screen).

[oriolid]

Yes. The only problems are that the control panels are incredibly illogical at best (this is one of the things I meant with the "worst ideas from both Windows and MacOS and some of their own), and often just don't seem to work or need to be used in a specific non-intuitive way. Command line and config files are the way to stay sane and get things done.

[agumonkey]

I agree but this won't be a "real" problem. It just gonna be put under the rug by most.

[pessimizer]

No problem has been described.

[GiorgioG]

If you play AAA titles, you’re not moving away from Windows.

[wincy]

Why? Looking at top PC games lists of 2022, almost all of them are supported on Steam Deck. All the games I’ve played on there run fantastically well. On a sale I bought Assassin’s Creed Odyssey which is an older AAA game and Steam Deck even runs fine.

[tapoxi]

Anti-Cheat. Most multiplayer shooters will refuse to run under Linux.

[iuafhiuah]

Most is a stretch.

The FPS in the top 100 currently most popular games on Steam[0] and their status [1]:

  #01 CS:GO - native
  #04 PUBG - anticheat
  #05 CoD MW2 - anticheat
  #06 Apex - Works (it has anticheat that works on Linux)
  #07 TF2 - native
  #09 Rust - Works
  #12 Destiny 2 - anticheat
  #21 Rainbow 6 - anticheat
  #22 DayZ - Works (it has anticheat that works on Linux)
  #26 Warframe - Works
  #69 Payday2 - Works
  #78 Arma 3 - Works (it has anticheat that works on Linux)
  #79 CS:S - Native

Native or working: 9/13

Broken: 4/13

Non-steam or outside top-100:

  OW2 - Linux is second class and not actively supported - but Blizzard have unblocked Linux support when issues were reported
  Battlefield (all?) - Works
  CoD (before MW2) - Works
  Gundam Evolution - anticheat

[0] https://store.steampowered.com/charts/mostplayed

[1] https://www.protondb.com/

[tapoxi]

I'm probably spectacularly unlucky as I play Siege, Destiny 2, CoD MW2, Hunt Showdown (#63), and the occasional Fortnite (EGS) and Valorant (Riot), none of which work.

Battlefield 2042 is on Steam but not supported, though I'm not sure if that's the anti-cheat solution or Proton.

[phendrenad2]

Sadly even a few top games not running on Linux is enough to keep most PC gamers off of Linux.

[chabad360]

Since the announcement of the Steam Deck, Valve has made various promises to work with the AC providers to bring support to Linux. So far they have brought support for Epic's EAC, and it seems they are working on bringing it for other titles as well.

[Zhyl]

An increasing number of games with Anti-cheat work.

https://areweanticheatyet.com

[cjbgkagh]

With Win 11 I get Micro-stuttering which makes gaming a nightmare. I’ve given up on getting it fixed. I wouldn’t put it past Microsoft to accidentally kill their cash cow via an accumulation of small mistakes and a loss of key competence.

[duffyjp]

In my workplace folks are begging for MacBooks.

[ansgri]

M1 Macbooks are alien technology compared to Windows (performance and battery life) or Lunux (professional app support) ones. The main barrier to switch is different keyboard layout — after a month of using Mac as a home PC (switching from workplace-issued Linux) unfamiliarity with keyboard is the main hurdle, especially on non-English layout.

[bombcar]

Macs have been Unix with Photoshop and Office for decades now.

[nesarkvechnep]

At my workplace people are begging for Linux but unfortunately we got Macs.

[BlargMcLarg]

People keep saying this and then run into minor problems becoming bigger problems because frequently used programs end up being unusable or 3rd class citizen, behind both mobile and Mac users.

Unless Linux is braindead easy to use without frustrations, it won't happen. Gamers pay more for lesser ease of access increases.

[croes]

Yes, people are strange. Every problem on Linux is deal breaker, all the problems on Windows aren't.

[BlargMcLarg]

It's not 'every problem'. People know Windows. People understand most of Windows. They took years to do so, and they still run into problems. Now you ask them 'switch over to Linux, it doesn't have problem X', without understanding the average person doesn't want to invest the time or effort learning anything more complicated than downloading and installing a random .exe (why do you think phishing and malware are so prevalent in their infantile state?).

This is reinforced by most major apps which eventually become cross-platform starting out treating Linux as a 3rd class citizen. For games, Discord and Parsec come to mind, where the former took years, and the latter still doesn't allow hosting from Linux. Nothing about this reinforces the idea of Linux being easier to use. It's the opposite: it reinforces the mentality that Linux is still two decades behind, regardless what the reality may be.

How many complaints form when YouTube pushes a minor UI or UX change? Now multiply that by a few magnitudes of order. That is the problem we're dealing with, and no amount of chastising or belittling Windows users will change that (in fact, it does the opposite). Did people forget how Apple managed to get a foothold in the market despite their ludicrous prices and dev-unfriendly practices?

[Santosh83]

It's not even this. It's just that for vast majority of 'average' people, they just use whatever OS comes with their devices. "Installing an OS" is an alien concept for most people. So it is automatically either MacOS/iOS or Chromium/Linux (Chromebook), Android or Windows. That's it. And although Linux the kernel features in two of these, that's totally beside the point. The point is people mostly don't even know how to change their preinstalled OS, no matter how irritating it is. If it develops too many issues, they take it to the local tech shop who almost always will reinstall/reset the same OS and give it back.

The only people who use Linux are the tech oriented crowd, including gamers, who naturally tend to be more tech oriented than most. This is still a very small fraction of the world though. And this isn't changing unless a healthy fraction of devices and PCs come with Linux preinstalled. Even then a lot of people will complain and ask for Windows (or whatever) the very next day after purchasing their device.

[exceptione]

> People know Windows. People understand most of Windows.

Not in my observation. They get something pre-installed, they click on things they know. I am always amazed by the fact that most don' t have the smallest mental image of how it works.

[mynameisvlad]

I mean, this is pretty easily explainable. People have grown up around Windows. The problems for the most part don’t change over time, so people have gotten used to them and have developed their own tried and true ways of doing something that sidesteps the problems they had.

Switching to Linux brings with it a whole new swath of problems and fixes Windows problems so not only are users seeing new issues, their workarounds now have to be worked around because whatever was wrong in Windows works in Linux. Add to that the fact that most Linux users are power users and instructions therefore lean towards that, and you’ve got a problem that also seems insurmountable to solve.

It’s the classic boiling frog dilemma. Windows has just had decades of heating water to get to where we are.

[cjbgkagh]

Many people highly value continuity, if it’s working it should keep working the same way for a very long time. Once a Linux computer is working, even if it’s more work to get it to that state, keeping it working is much easier than with Windows. Using updates to force major breaking changes should be a crime.

[oliwarner]

While there are still use-cases where the traditional laptop/desktop form-factor remains the answer and there are Windows users, Windows getting worse and Linux getting better will continue to see people migrate over.

No, there' won't be an explosion, it's a death by a thousand cuts. The bemused amongst us are wondering why Microsoft is the one holding the knife.

[the_third_wave]

For you, maybe not. For me it has been in the running - and mostly in the lead - for close to 30 years. There's Linux on this iMac, on the Thinkpad sitting next to it, on the server these connect to, on the phones lying on the desk, on the tablet. For all I know there is Linux in the washing machine as well, I never bothered to look. It seems like Gates' vision of "information at your fingertips" has come true, the only thing "missing" is Windows. I do have a few virtual machines on the server for the few packages (VAG ELSA, looking at you...) which don't run well on Linux/Wine but these only get started every other blue moon.

By the way, the Chromebook you mentioned runs Linux. Google might eventually port this to Fuchsia but this remains to be seen.

[als0]

The year of the Linux Desktop already happened, just not in the way people wanted - Android and Chromebooks.

[nibbleshifter]

Tbh, everyone I know who has used an Android "laptop" or "Chromebook" has abandoned it after ~6 months for a "real computer".

Turns out Native > Webshit for many things.

[Mistletoe]

I'm never buying another Chromebook and Chromebox because Google sunsetted my perfectly fine working laptop and Chromebox and now it can't do things like play streaming movies from HBO Max because the chrome version is too low. Spotify doesn't work either. Leaves few things left to do with it haha.

[the_third_wave]

Install Linux on it and you'll be able to use the latest version of Chromium and stream to your heart's content.

[Mistletoe]

I think I'll just sell it and get a used Macbook Air, they go for like $99 on Ebay now.

Every time in my life I have installed Linux with such high hopes and get annoyed by all the crap that doesn't work.

[the_third_wave]

Can you give some examples of "things which do not work"? Seeing how as I've been using Linux for close to 30 years and have it running on loads of different types of hardware with more or less everything working - yes even Bluetooth - I'm always somewhat surprised by these problems which fail to haunt me.

[pjmlp]

That is the Year of Linux kernel, there is nothing else from GNU/Linux on Android and ChromeOS.

[tormeh]

It's a pretty good argument in favor of the GNU/Linux vs. plain Linux distinction. Which is not a thing I really thought I'd say.

[tracerbulletx]

I don't think that's really true. Recent trends show the % of desktop/laptop users has normalized and is no longer trending down.

[mhh__]

Soo niche except for 99.99999% of devs

[vips7L]

A lot of devs don’t want to tinker with Linux. Myself included. And this is disregarding all of the work places that only give out Windows or MacOS machines.

[SoftTalker]

I use Linux. No tinkering required if you use a major distro. I used to like to tinker with stuff, but slowly my viewpoint changed. Most of the time these tweaks are just different, not better, and a waste of time. Worse, whenever you have to use a more stock configuration on another machine, you are fumbling around. These days I just use the defaults on almost everything, whether Windows, Mac, or Linux.

[mhh__]

Also I've spent a grand total of 30 minutes tinkering with my Linux machines this year, windows has had to be reinstalled twice.

[tormeh]

No tinkering required. Tinkering can be tempting and dangerous, but if you keep yourself in check it's just not a thing you need to do. Unless you install Arch, but then you deserve what you get. Just install Ubuntu or Pop and you'll be fine.

[phendrenad2]

"No tinkering required" needs to come with a big YMMV. Most of the devs I've polled about their Linux experience matches the OP, they tried it and went back to Mac/Windows.

[mhh__]

The comment I am replying to says that computers with keyboards are niche, that's what I'm replying to

[TheLoafOfBread]

As a developer I tried Linux for 1 year (no dual boot). It was such traumatic experience, that I would never repeat it again.

[phendrenad2]

Not me, I make it a habit to try Linux every year to see what the major distros are, and test their feasibility as a replacement for MacOS. I usually run into bugs and lots of necessary copy-paste from the internet to get random features working.

[bombcar]

Even the majority of “command line devs” are satisfied by Mac or even WSL for their machines. The servers they connect to are almost always Linux, however.

[ok123456]

Apparently not, since every time Microsoft does something boneheaded that alienates their "command line devs" we hear about it on hackernews.

[bombcar]

If they didn't keep using it we'd've only heard about the first time.

[f1refly]

It's almost as if those are multiple people with different tolerances for microsoft induced pain