[arcturus17]

- Microsoft will continue to grow. Their tech ecosystem is hyper-expansive, touching everything related to development and IT (.Net, TypeScript, Github, VSCode, PowerPlatform, Azure, etc.). Please don't directly come at me with moral qualms or commentary on the quality of their products - I'm just the messenger.

- Low-code tooling will see a growth spurt, not driven by "citizen developers" but by increased developer adoption of technologies that offer a good DX and a capability to integrate seamlessly into "normal" dev workflows. Tech like Retool, Plasmic, Builder.io, PowerPlatform, new-gen ETLs, etc.

- The "citizen developer" paradigm will remain largely unsolved. The vision holds all its initial potential but it requires a multi-pronged, universal, push involving corporate politics, compliance, security, training, etc. that cannot be solved by a single company. We might see interesting initiatives or companies built around this in 2023, but a year won't be enough time to solve it.

- There will be a massive proliferation of GPT-based apps. Many will be shite, a few will be useful.

- Rising interest rates will push investment mass away from startups and into the other end of the spectrum: good old bonds and other fixed-rate assets.

- There will be a rising movement of software dev methodologies and training on how to use AI-assisted coding (Copilot, ChatGPT) effectively.

- ChatGPT will not replace coders at least in 2023, and the bitter non-tech people who are expressing uninformed opinions on its code-gen capabilities, observing from the sidelines and waiting for some sort of comeuppance, are not going to get it.

- React will continue to be a standard but coding a form will be as difficult as it was back in fucking 2013. I love the tech otherwise, but c'mon.

[jhoelzel]

"ChatGPT will not replace coders at least in 2023"

ChatGPT is the smaller model more aimed at chat, the davincy model is already better ;)

[arcturus17]

To produce working software systems, you need, among other things:

- Business analysis / product management skills

- Software architecture skills

- Ability to read the code output, and edit it as needed

- Ability to run the code and deploy it

- Ability to debug it

- A combination of all of the above to prioritize and implement changes as business requirements evolve

Does Davinci directly address any of this?

[jhoelzel]

yes. Everybody tends to think their business requirements are very unique. In reality not so much.

Also it does not need to replace -all- coders. but if ONE smart Architect is able to bang out a mid tier MVP all by himself by feeding a textbox, you might feel trouble approaching.

[arcturus17]

> Everybody tends to think their business requirements are very unique

How did that pan out for low-code tools? Or hell, the advent of high-level languages in the 60's and 70's? Did either of these paradigm shifts reduce the amount of coders needed?

For these tools to really eat up into demand for programmers, it would need to increase productivity enough to:

1. Meet the ever-growing demand for software

2. Close the permanent gap for devs in the world (which some quantify in the millions)

Dev prospects could worsen in 2023 due to the rise of interest rates and the displacement of investment towards fixed-assets, but if you think that Davinci or whatever model is the factor that's going to be pushing the needle, I don't know what to tell you.

[TeMPOraL]

> 1. Meet the ever-growing demand for software

The growth won't last forever. At least not at this pace.

How many companies write the same bits of software as everyone else, destined to throw them away after a year or two? How much of that waste is driven by continuous churn of frameworks? How much of that software itself is pointless, powering businesses that should never be?

I'm thinking of OP's prediction:

> - Rising interest rates will push investment mass away from startups and into the other end of the spectrum: good old bonds and other fixed-rate assets.

If that were to happen, I wonder what it'll do to the "ever-growing demand for software".

[flashgordon]

The other thing people don't realize is if one "architect" is able to bangout an mvp super fast with an AI what is stopping others? Then wouldn't the over supply just mean mvps are now severely commoditized? Youve just moved the demand else where. Instead of "idea people" we will now have "mvp people"?

[jhoelzel]

you mean the low code tools like wix that make billions?

Look I see what you mean, but even you have to admit that helping generate the basic structure for something will save days of development and the fact that it can probably learn a new framework of tool xyz quicker than us will give a big boost.

[is_true]

I don't think WIX is a low code tool, it's a template editor, PowerPoint on the web. But, what's a low code tool?

[rodolphoarruda]

Project management, always forgotten.

[throwaway019254]

> coding a form will be as difficult as it was back in fucking 2013.

I'm sure there is at least one NPM package that solves this issue.

[TeMPOraL]

There are many. They are the reason coding a form is as difficult today as it was back in fucking 2013.