[arcturus17]

To produce working software systems, you need, among other things:

- Business analysis / product management skills

- Software architecture skills

- Ability to read the code output, and edit it as needed

- Ability to run the code and deploy it

- Ability to debug it

- A combination of all of the above to prioritize and implement changes as business requirements evolve

Does Davinci directly address any of this?

[jhoelzel]

yes. Everybody tends to think their business requirements are very unique. In reality not so much.

Also it does not need to replace -all- coders. but if ONE smart Architect is able to bang out a mid tier MVP all by himself by feeding a textbox, you might feel trouble approaching.

[arcturus17]

> Everybody tends to think their business requirements are very unique

How did that pan out for low-code tools? Or hell, the advent of high-level languages in the 60's and 70's? Did either of these paradigm shifts reduce the amount of coders needed?

For these tools to really eat up into demand for programmers, it would need to increase productivity enough to:

1. Meet the ever-growing demand for software

2. Close the permanent gap for devs in the world (which some quantify in the millions)

Dev prospects could worsen in 2023 due to the rise of interest rates and the displacement of investment towards fixed-assets, but if you think that Davinci or whatever model is the factor that's going to be pushing the needle, I don't know what to tell you.

[TeMPOraL]

> 1. Meet the ever-growing demand for software

The growth won't last forever. At least not at this pace.

How many companies write the same bits of software as everyone else, destined to throw them away after a year or two? How much of that waste is driven by continuous churn of frameworks? How much of that software itself is pointless, powering businesses that should never be?

I'm thinking of OP's prediction:

> - Rising interest rates will push investment mass away from startups and into the other end of the spectrum: good old bonds and other fixed-rate assets.

If that were to happen, I wonder what it'll do to the "ever-growing demand for software".

[flashgordon]

The other thing people don't realize is if one "architect" is able to bangout an mvp super fast with an AI what is stopping others? Then wouldn't the over supply just mean mvps are now severely commoditized? Youve just moved the demand else where. Instead of "idea people" we will now have "mvp people"?

[jhoelzel]

you mean the low code tools like wix that make billions?

Look I see what you mean, but even you have to admit that helping generate the basic structure for something will save days of development and the fact that it can probably learn a new framework of tool xyz quicker than us will give a big boost.

[is_true]

I don't think WIX is a low code tool, it's a template editor, PowerPoint on the web. But, what's a low code tool?

[jhoelzel]

Powerpoint is too a low code tool ;)

[rodolphoarruda]

Project management, always forgotten.