[edwnj]

As for what happens next: de-globalisation

I predict we'll see blocks forming up again, something like: - West (US+EU) - East (China+Russia) - India (India, Sri Lanka, Himalayan States, South China states) - Middle (Middle East+North Africa) - Latam (Central + South American States)

One wild card IMO would be the rise of the Indian sphere of influence. I'll leave some room for India's remarkable ability to snatch defeat form the jaws of victory. If they don't f this up, they have UUUGE tailwinds going for them.

Middle east is overrated IMO, its like an oasis with oil instead of water. When the oil money runs out, not gonna be fun any more.

Latam is probs the biggest wildcard, even bigger than India. They don't need a lot of things to be right to wildly outperform as a block. Just like the US, they are protected by two oceans so they can choose to not involve themselves in stuff.

Africa is highly overrated IMO, the entire continent is cursed in multiple ways. If u compare africa to another post colonial continent like Latam, africa is in a place where they need to get so many things right to just survive, let alone to catch up.

[thisiscorrect]

I agree with the general premise of your comment, that this is a small sign of the deglobalization which is _already_ under way.

But, what are the UUUGE tailwinds benefiting India? India, even more so than China, seems likely to "get old before it gets rich." Its TFR is already below replacement and falling rapidly.

[edwnj]

I strongly disagree with on demographics, it looks really good for most of the century. Everything including TFR, young population, working population and even elderly populations looks REALLY good. Especially relative to China.

Demographics aside, India is a perfect replacement for China in high tech manufacturing. Stability is a huge factor here giving India a massive edge compared to south east asian alternatives.

On top of that, you have young highly skilled & literate workforce. A largely discounted wealthy diaspora investing back into the motherland. Huge pool of software talent.

IMO it makes for a huge Shenzhen like moment for India. Again, I leave a massive amount of room for India to duck this up but it is India's opportunity to fuck up. The winds have shifted heavily in their favour.

[KptMarchewa]

China's official TFR figures are massively engineered: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinese-populat...

India ones are still over replaceability.

[thisiscorrect]

https://www.google.com/search?q=india+total+fertility+rate tells me India's is 2.18, below the modern replacement TFR rate of 2.3 [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#Replaceme...

[KptMarchewa]

India child mortality rate is low enough that it's closer to developed countries rate of 2.1, rather than global rate which you cite.

[dirtyid]

With respect to point of original argument:

>get old before it gets rich

If PRC's official population is as low as Yi thinks, then her per capita GDP is already "secretly" high income at ~14000 USD. She would technically already have gotten rich before old. CCP has incentive to overreport population / underreport GDP to keep "developing" country status.

>India ones are still over replaceability

Indian overall TFR this year is ~2.0, but more important to break down Indian TFR by state, which will reveal all the high HDI/developmed/educated regions are ~1.6 and trending down, while the underdeveloped and poorly educated regions are still >2. The TLDR is India's demographic divident in her high potential regions is basically over, while low potential regions are generating excess bodies that will have little opportunity develop. Recipe for disaster in democracy, and hence:

> India, even more so than China, seems likely to "get old before it gets rich."

Of course India is going to grow, by a lot, but much of her high potential demographic divident is already tapped out while stuck in low middle income unless the system get it's shit together.

[dmitriid]

> East (China+Russia)

People that keep bunching Russia with China are deluding themselves that Russia is anywhere on China's radar except as a source of cheap resources (gas, oil, wood)

[edwnj]

Russia is a UUUUGE strategic geopolitical ally for China.

In a de-globilised world split into spheres of influence, Russia would be a foothold into Europe.

Cheap resources cant be discounted, China has duck all for resources. It imports everything (raw nat resources) and its current source Australia is not an ally.

[KptMarchewa]

China has other sources for any of the raw materials, russia has no other markets.

If anything happens, it will be a massive extortion like Iran-China deal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93China_25-year_Coo...

Current Urals price is profitable but way below needed to maintain blown up russian budget by war effort. China likes this.