| With respect to point of original argument: >get old before it gets rich If PRC's official population is as low as Yi thinks, then her per capita GDP is already "secretly" high income at ~14000 USD. She would technically already have gotten rich before old. CCP has incentive to overreport population / underreport GDP to keep "developing" country status. >India ones are still over replaceability Indian overall TFR this year is ~2.0, but more important to break down Indian TFR by state, which will reveal all the high HDI/developmed/educated regions are ~1.6 and trending down, while the underdeveloped and poorly educated regions are still >2. The TLDR is India's demographic divident in her high potential regions is basically over, while low potential regions are generating excess bodies that will have little opportunity develop. Recipe for disaster in democracy, and hence: > India, even more so than China, seems likely to "get old before it gets rich." Of course India is going to grow, by a lot, but much of her high potential demographic divident is already tapped out while stuck in low middle income unless the system get it's shit together. |