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by nlitsme
1315 days ago
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just looking at the graph: why do they expect this to be linear? Their graph has two lines: (month 0 == december) - totalcases = 180*month+300 - totaldeaths = 83*month+84 Recent experience with covid shows that usually epidemics initially grow exponentially. |
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The slide shows that they are actually just forecasting (month * 200) cases which is obviously not the way you should do this. The slide also has a bar chart with a line between the bars, which is a stats-bad-smell too (at least shows that whoever pulled this together doesn't understand how to display data).
I know this is a developing nation that won't have the same level of availability of statisticians and epidemiologists, but it's worrying how basic this is.