[Closi]

You are right - the government analysis looks like garbage IMHO.

The slide shows that they are actually just forecasting (month * 200) cases which is obviously not the way you should do this. The slide also has a bar chart with a line between the bars, which is a stats-bad-smell too (at least shows that whoever pulled this together doesn't understand how to display data).

I know this is a developing nation that won't have the same level of availability of statisticians and epidemiologists, but it's worrying how basic this is.