[lamontcg]

Economists have predicted "soft landings" before every recession I can remember where I've followed what the Fed has been saying (I don't quite remember the Volker Fed, I was a little too preoccupied with Star Wars toys and Legos).

[bryanlarsen]

And economists have predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions. And in an economy with 3.5% unemployment, the odds of a recession seem pretty low in my opinion.

[klipklop]

We are pretty early into the cycle to declare such a thing. The rate increases are likely not close to ending. It takes time for this stuff to unwind.

Also note that we are in a similar situation as when Nixon propped up the economy before an election in 1972. It took a while for his policies to backfire. Unemployment rate was 3.5% when Nixon was elected and doubled by 1974.

The current dominating party in the US is not taking as many extreme measures as Nixon of course, but for me I want to see where the economy stands after the election dust has settled.

[bryanlarsen]

We are also pretty early into the cycle to declare that a recession is inevitable. Yet that's what a lot of people are saying. The only thing that can be said with certainty is that the future is risky and unclear. IOW, situation normal, all f^#$ed up.

It's not the election, it's Black Friday that will be the bellweather, I think. If inflation is still ongoing, discounts will be minimal. If the economy is going south, sales will be tepid. Nobody is ready to lower prices permanently, but temporarily? Massive discounts are the traditional way for retailers to lower prices in times of uncertainty. The rise of the dollar and the inflation of the past year will give retailers lots of room for discounts, so I expect to see them liberally applied. And with unemployment so low and low-income wages rising so quickly, I expect to see record retail spending this month.

[lamontcg]

The Fed is doing 0.75bp rate hikes every meeting and talking affectionately about Paul Volker. And Powell was pretty clearly saying that rates are going to go higher and stay higher longer than the market expects. We're going to have a recession.

This Black Friday is unlikely to be any kind of bellweather. It normally takes 6-12 months after rate hikes stop for them to be felt in the broader market. Next Black Friday might be a bellweather, but I expect that we'll already be in it by then.

[bryanlarsen]

Keep pushing out those goalposts. People on HN last spring were confident we'd be in a recession by now. Now you're saying that it's 6-12 months away? If you keep pushing those goalposts eventually you will be right. There will be a recession some time in the future.

[lamontcg]

Once the effects of the Fed rates hikes are felt broadly throughout the economy and unemployment is running closer to 8% let me know if that feels more like a recession or not.