[lamontcg]

The Fed is doing 0.75bp rate hikes every meeting and talking affectionately about Paul Volker. And Powell was pretty clearly saying that rates are going to go higher and stay higher longer than the market expects. We're going to have a recession.

This Black Friday is unlikely to be any kind of bellweather. It normally takes 6-12 months after rate hikes stop for them to be felt in the broader market. Next Black Friday might be a bellweather, but I expect that we'll already be in it by then.

[bryanlarsen]

Keep pushing out those goalposts. People on HN last spring were confident we'd be in a recession by now. Now you're saying that it's 6-12 months away? If you keep pushing those goalposts eventually you will be right. There will be a recession some time in the future.