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by modeless 1337 days ago
I do believe it will work. Eventually. After hardware upgrades. And it's the only system available to the public that even attempts to do some of these things, so it's the only option if you want to test early. OpenPilot is cool too but it doesn't do everything.

Also I paid $3k for FSD.
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arcticbull 1337 days ago
> I do believe it will work. Eventually. After hardware upgrades.

Ok but that's not what Elon ever sold, even once, even a little bit.

He's promised full self-driving is one year away for each of the last nine years. [1]

So I'm happy you paid a huge sum of money to beta test a product on a completely unrealistic timeline, but that's not going to suffice for most customers. I have to imagine that many, if not most, people took the company at their word.

[edit] Here's a compilation video. [2]

[1] https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-ne...

[2] https://youtu.be/o7oZ-AQszEI

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modeless 1337 days ago
Yes, Elon has been and continues to be inexcusably optimistic on AI timelines. I think it would be reasonable to fine Tesla for false promises on timelines and on stuff like "all cars contain all necessary hardware for FSD". But being wrong about those things doesn't warrant criminal charges. I was completely aware that the timelines were wrong at the time, but I also believed (correctly) that FSD would be available in a testable form eventually and had no problem spending 5% of the purchase price of my car to participate in the future testing.
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ManuelKiessling 1337 days ago
> inexcusably optimistic

I will definitely bookmark this as a nice replacement for "lying".

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modeless 1336 days ago
It's only lying if he doesn't believe it. And he demonstrably does. He has a whole division at Tesla designing a humanoid robot for mass production in the next few years on the assumption that the AI will be ready by then. He keeps removing sensors from their cars on the assumption that AI can replace them in a few months' time. He started a brain implant company with basically no near term market potential because he believes it will be important for interfacing with the upcoming AIs. If he didn't believe his own statements about AI he wouldn't be doing those things. It may be borderline delusional, but that's not the same thing as lying.

Consider that in the past plenty of other people in the industry have underestimated things that he's overestimated, such as the potential for reusable rockets, and the timeline for electric cars becoming viable, and the timeline for low-cost phased array antennas to support Starlink. And those have been incredible success stories for him, despite his initial overestimation, which really was overestimation, that many called stupid at the time, with some justification. And AI may yet turn out that way too. Even if he's wildly optimistic about timelines, he may still end up closer to correct than the conservative establishment in the industry which has a very strong status quo bias, like with disposable rockets and internal combustion engines.

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blaser-waffle 1336 days ago
> It's only lying if he doesn't believe it.

Whether he believes it or not doesn't mean jack. You are still out several thousand dollars for something that doesn't work.

I bet Liz Holmes really truly thought Theranos products were going to work too.

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modeless 1336 days ago
It clearly means something, both from a legal perspective and a moral perspective.
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