[sad]

I'll go out a limb here. It seems like it was too easy and too valuable. Smells like a Trojan Horse. Who knows what Iran will be getting themselves into when they move the thing to some "secure" location. Oh, I do likes a good conspiracy...

[jonnathanson]

As interesting as that possibility might sound, I am reminded of Hanlon's Razor: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

A drone with improper (or beaten) failsafes and countermeasures seems far more likely than a planted trojan.

And if modern history -- especially 21st century modern history -- is any guide, we can bet on two things: 1) The US's overestimation of its own technological advantages; 2) The US's underestimation of its enemies' technological capabilities.

[spamizbad]

> 1) The US's overestimation of its own technological advantages; 2) The US's underestimation of its enemies' technological capabilities.

Doesn't the cold war disprove both of those points?

The United States dramatically overestimated the USSR's military capabilities. For example, there may not have been any real "Missile Gap" http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2011/9/27/gap-missile-cia-...

I can't find a link at the moment, but the CIA grossly overestimated Russia's long-range bomber fleet from what it saw during a military parade - it turns out the Soviets had the same aircraft fly the parade route in a continuous loop.

Perhaps the real problem is our Military will often overestimate what technology is capable of, and is blind to some of its downsides.

[jonnathanson]

We've massively underestimated China on a consistent basis -- and, while it's true that they are probably running similar Potemkin-village-style games as the Russians played in the Cold War, some of their technological leaps are well established. Especially in the domains of cyber warfare, ballistics, and supercomputing.

We've underestimated Iran, Hezbollah, insurgent forces, etc., pretty routinely -- in terms of their technological capabilities, adaptability, and organizational sophistication.

I do agree with you, though, that we tend to overestimate what technology is capable of. I'd expand that point, however, and say that we overestimate what big, expensive hardware is capable of. And we underestimate low-tech, low-cost, jury-rigged, creative uses of technology.

Additionally, we tend to underestimate the diffusion -- be it through theft, connectivity, sale, espionage, or what have you -- of cutting edge technological know-how in today's world.