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We've massively underestimated China on a consistent basis -- and, while it's true that they are probably running similar Potemkin-village-style games as the Russians played in the Cold War, some of their technological leaps are well established. Especially in the domains of cyber warfare, ballistics, and supercomputing. We've underestimated Iran, Hezbollah, insurgent forces, etc., pretty routinely -- in terms of their technological capabilities, adaptability, and organizational sophistication. I do agree with you, though, that we tend to overestimate what technology is capable of. I'd expand that point, however, and say that we overestimate what big, expensive hardware is capable of. And we underestimate low-tech, low-cost, jury-rigged, creative uses of technology. Additionally, we tend to underestimate the diffusion -- be it through theft, connectivity, sale, espionage, or what have you -- of cutting edge technological know-how in today's world. |